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N Engl J Med. 1987 Aug 27;317(9):521-6.

Analysis of risk factors for stroke in a cohort of men born in 1913.


We analyzed parental death from stroke and other potential risk factors in relation to the incidence of stroke among 789 men, all 54 years old at the base-line examination. During 18.5 years of follow-up, 57 men (7.2 percent) had strokes. In univariate analyses, the following characteristics correlated significantly with the incidence of stroke: increased systolic (P = 0.004) and diastolic blood pressure (P = 0.0001), larger waist circumference (P = 0.007), higher waist:hip ratio (P = 0.0004), increased plasma fibrinogen level (P = 0.01), and lower vital capacity (P = 0.03). In addition, men whose mothers had died of stroke had a threefold increase in their incidence of stroke as compared with men without such a maternal history (P = 0.0005). Potential risk factors for stroke that were not confirmed were body-mass index, serum cholesterol level, hematocrit, blood glucose level, smoking, coronary heart disease, electrocardiographic signs of left ventricular hypertrophy, and a paternal history of death from stroke. In multivariate analyses, increased blood pressure, abdominal obesity, increased plasma fibrinogen level, and maternal history still correlated significantly with the risk of stroke. A maternal history of stroke should probably be added to the list of risk factors for stroke among middle-aged men.

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