Importance: Polygenic risk scores (PRS) for type 2 diabetes (T2D) can improve risk prediction for gestational diabetes (GD), yet the strength of the association between genetic and lifestyle risk factors has not been quantified.
Objective: To assess the association of PRS and physical activity in existing GD risk models and identify patient subgroups who may receive the most benefits from a PRS or physical activity intervention.
Design, settings, and participants: The Nulliparous Pregnancy Outcomes Study: Monitoring Mothers-to-Be cohort was established to study individuals without previous pregnancy lasting at least 20 weeks (nulliparous) and to elucidate factors associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes. A subcohort of 3533 participants with European ancestry was used for risk assessment and performance evaluation. Participants were enrolled from October 5, 2010, to December 3, 2013, and underwent genotyping between February 19, 2019, and February 28, 2020. Data were analyzed from September 15, 2020, to November 10, 2021.
Exposures: Self-reported total physical activity in early pregnancy was quantified as metabolic equivalents of task (METs). Polygenic risk scores were calculated for T2D using contributions of 84 single nucleotide variants, weighted by their association in the Diabetes Genetics Replication and Meta-analysis Consortium data.
Main outcomes and measures: Estimation of the development of GD from clinical, genetic, and environmental variables collected in early pregnancy, assessed using measures of model discrimination. Odds ratios and positive likelihood ratios were used to evaluate the association of PRS and physical activity with GD risk.
Results: A total of 3533 women were included in this analysis (mean [SD] age, 28.6 [4.9] years). In high-risk population subgroups (body mass index ≥25 or aged ≥35 years), individuals with high PRS (top 25th percentile) or low activity levels (METs <450) had increased odds of a GD diagnosis of 25% to 75%. Compared with the general population, participants with both high PRS and low activity levels had higher odds of a GD diagnosis (odds ratio, 3.4 [95% CI, 2.3-5.3]), whereas participants with low PRS and high METs had significantly reduced risk of a GD diagnosis (odds ratio, 0.5 [95% CI, 0.3-0.9]; P = .01).
Conclusions and relevance: In this cohort study, the addition of PRS was associated with the stratified risk of GD diagnosis among high-risk patient subgroups, suggesting the benefits of targeted PRS ascertainment to encourage early intervention.