Latent triple trajectories of substance use as predictors for the onset of antisocial personality disorder among urban African American and Puerto Rican adults: A 22-year longitudinal study

Background: Antisocial personality disorder (ASPD) incurs a high cost to society due to the high risk of violent and nonviolent offenses associated with this personality disorder, thus making the examination of the etiology and the onset of ASPD an important public health concern. Method: The present study consisted of five waves of data collection of the Harlem Longitudinal Development Study (N = 674). In the Cox proportional hazard model, latent multiple substance use trajectories from mid-adolescence to emerging adulthood (mean age 14 to mean age 24) were used as a predictor for the onset of ASPD during emerging adulthood to the mid-thirties (mean age 24 to mean age 36). The control variables were gender, ethnicity, problem behaviors, and victimization. Results: In the multiple Cox proportional hazard model, the high (HR = 2.74, p < 0.001) and the increasing frequency of (HR = 2.55, p < 0.001) use on alcohol, cigarette, and cannabis latent trajectory groups were associated with an increased hazard of ASPD onset as compared with the no or low frequency of use on alcohol, cigarette, and cannabis latent trajectory group after controlling for demographic factors and earlier problem behaviors as well as victimization. Conclusions: The implications of this study for the prediction of adult ASPD onset time may focus on the early use of alcohol, cigarette, and cannabis from mid adolescence to emerging adulthood.