Background: Some papillary thyroid microcarcinomas (PTMCs) may progress with tumor enlargement or development of new lymph node (LN) metastasis during active surveillance (AS). This study evaluated the relevant predictors of disease progression, especially new cervical LN metastasis. Methods: This was a long-term follow-up study conducted using a previous multicenter cohort of AS in Korea. After excluding 54 (14.2%) patients with a short follow-up duration, 326 PTMC patients were evaluated for tumor kinetics, including changes in tumor volume (TV) and TV doubling time (TVDT). Results: During a median follow-up duration of 4.9 years, 17 (5.2%, 95% confidence intervals [CI] 2.7-7.6%) patients showed a maximal diameter increase of ≥3 mm after a median of 4.0 years follow-up, while 9 (2.8%, CI 1.0-4.5%) developed new LN metastasis after a median of 2.2 years follow-up. New cervical LN metastasis occurred exclusively of a maximal diameter increase of ≥3 mm. The prevalence of new development of LN metastasis was higher in patients with TVDT <5 years (7.4%) than in those with TV ≥50% (3.2%). Furthermore, only TVDT <5 years was significantly associated with LN metastasis (p = 0.002). In univariate and multivariate analyses, TVDT <5 years was an independent risk factor for disease progression with respect to new development of LN metastasis (hazard ratio [HR] = 6.51, CI 1.73-24.50; p = 0.002) and tumor enlargement (HR = 20.89, CI 5.78-75.48; p < 0.001). Finally, 86 (22.6%) patients underwent delayed surgery, and the most common reason was patient anxiety. Conclusions: TVDT <5 years is a predictor of disease progression during AS in terms of new LN metastasis development as well as tumor enlargement. Determination of TVDT in the early phase of AS could help in predicting disease progression, tailoring follow-up intensity of AS and in determining if early surgical intervention is needed.
Keywords: active surveillance; papillary thyroid carcinoma; progression; tumor volume doubling time.