While predicting prognosis to anticipate adverse disease course has long been an aspiration in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HC), reliable markers of progressive and unrelenting heart failure symptoms in the absence of obstruction are not well characterized. We sought to evaluate markers of systolic function, including the role of global longitudinal strain (GLS), to identify nonobstructive HC patients at risk for future heart failure. A cohort of 296 consecutive nonobstructive HC patients (42 ± 18years; 75% male) with NYHA class I/II symptoms and preserved systolic function at study entry (EF: 65 ± 6%), were followed for progressive heart failure symptoms (increase in ≥ 1 NYHA functional class) and/or development of systolic dysfunction (EF < 50%). Over median follow-up of 4 ± 3 years, 35 study patients (10%) experienced new heart failure events, including 31 with progressive symptoms and 4 who developed systolic dysfunction. Abnormal GLS < 16% was associated with a 5-fold increase in risk for heart failure compared to GLS > 18% (p < 0.001). GLS remained an independent predictor of heart failure even after adjustment for other relevant disease variables including EF (OR 1.23, p = 0.005). However, notably, when GLS and EF were combined, the prediction of heart failure for individual patients was enhanced (net reclassification improvement 0.55; p = 0.002). Together, GLS < 16% and EF 50% to 59% were associated with a 12.5-fold greater risk for heart failure versus patients with GLS > 18% and EF ≥ 60%, who were at the lowest risk. In conclusion, in nonobstructive HC with no or mild symptoms and preserved EF, abnormal GLS is a strong independent predictor for subsequent development of progressive heart failure symptoms and/or systolic dysfunction. Furthermore, the greatest power in predicting outcome in nonobstructive HC is achieved by combining GLS with EF to identify HC patients at the highest risk for heart failure progression and systolic dysfunction.
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