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Cesk Pediatr. 1988 Mar;43(3):165-7.

[New projections for the world population to the year 2025].

[Article in Czech]

Abstract

PIP:

The 1982 and 1984 population projection program of the United Nations containing estimations for the world's population for 2000-2025 had 3 variations: the median projection figure for 2000 was 6.122 billion and for 2025 8.025 billion. The respective figures of the high estimate were 6.340 and 9.088 billion, and the low estimate envisioned 5.927 and 7.358 billion people, respectively. THe corresponding rate of growth is expected to slow down from 1.67% during 1980-1985 to 1.38% during 2000- 2005, and to drop to 0.96% during 2020-2025. The rate of growth of the global population is to decrease from 37.6% during 1980-2000 to 27.4% during 2000-2020. The difference of the projections of 1982 and 1984 is only 29 million people (8.177 and 8.206, respectively). During the period 2000-2020 the population of Africa is expected to grow to make up 11.5% of the world's population, Europe would make up 10.20% and Asia 58.2%. By 2025 the respective figures would be 19.7%, 6.4%, and 55.3%. The rate of growth of 4 European regions would vary during 1980-2000 and 2000-2025: in Eastern Europe 10% and 7.3%, respectively, in Western Europe 2.0% and 0.0%, in Southern Europe 9.2% and 3.9%, and in Northern Europe 1.6% and -2.8%, respectively. The negative growth figures of the German Democratic Republic were revised from 1982 estimates to show a 2.5% and 2.4% increase during the respective periods. The slight increases (1.8% and 0.2%) projected for Hungary were reversed to zero or negative growth (0.0% and -0.8%). During these periods the growth figures for Czechoslovakia would be 8.3% and 8.0%, for Poland 14.7% and 9.2%, for Romania 15.2% and 11.4%, and for Bulgaria 7.6% and 4.6%, respectively. Life expectancy for the periods 1985-1990 and 2010-2025 is estimated at 61.1 and 70.5 years for the world, and 74.0 and 77.2 years for Europe.

PMID:
3365806
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
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