Match probabilities calculated during the evaluation of DNA evidence profiles rely on appropriate values of the population structure quantity θ. NGS-based methods will enhance forensic identification and with the transformation to such methods comes the need to facilitate NGS-based population genetics analysis. If NGS data are to be used for match probabilities there needs to be a way to accommodate population structure, which requires values for θ for those data. Such estimates have not been available. This study assesses population structure for sequence-based data using a relatively new approach applied to STR data over 27 loci in five different geographic groups. Matching proportions between individuals or groups are used to obtain locus-specific θ estimates as well as estimates per geographic group and a global measure. The results demonstrate similar effects of sequencing data on θ estimates compared to what has been seen for CE-based results.
Keywords: Forensic STR markers; NGS data; Population genetics; Sequence variation; θ.
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