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Am J Vet Res. 1988 Nov;49(11):1969-71.

Prognostic index for acute abdominal crisis (colic) in horses.

Author information

  • 1Section of Surgery, University of Pennsylvania, School of Veterinary Medicine, Kennett Square 19348.

Erratum in

  • Am J Vet Res 1989 Aug;50(8):1429.


Selected physical and laboratory findings in 29 horses with acute abdominal crisis were evaluated retrospectively with a logistic regression equation to predict survival or death. Of 17 variables examined, 2 were found to have good predictive correlation. Serum lactate and packed cell volume had a combined predictive value of 94%. Packed cell volume mean values of 43 and 50%, respectively, differentiated survival from death. Serum lactate values of 28.18 mg/dl and 51.28 mg/dl differentiated survival and death. Analysis of data from a previous study of 36 horses with the logistic regression equation predicted survival rate of 96% accuracy, further substantiating the statistical model.

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