Background: About one-third of the cervical cancer cases in Sweden occur in women over the age of 60. The primary aim of this study was to analyze the incidence of HPV, and HPV related dysplasia, in elderly women who had an HPV negative test at the age of 60 years or older.
Methods: From October 2004 to June 2019, 1784 women aged 60-90 years were sampled for an HPV test when attending an outpatient gynecology clinic. Of these women, 827 HPV-negative women had two or more HPV tests at intervals of three months to eleven years (mean 3.2 years). The women with positive results had a repeat HPV test and cytology after 2.5 months on average. Those with a positive repeat HPV test were examined by colposcopy and biopsy.
Findings: The overall prevalence of HPV was 5.4%, (95%CI 4.4-6.6, 96/1784). The incidence of HPV in the 827 women, who were HPV negative in their first test, was 2.4% (95%CI 1.5-3.8, n = 20). At the repeat test 1.2% remained positive (95%CI 0.6-2.3, n = 10). HPV-related dysplasia diagnosed by histology was found in 1.2% (95%CI 0.6-2.3, n = 10) of the 827 women. CIN2+ was found in 0.5% (95%CI 0.2-1.3, n = 4). In the repeat HPV test 52.6% 10/19) were HPV positive. The time between an HPV negative test and an HPV positive test and CIN2+ was on average 45.5 months (range 10-85 months). The positive predictive value (PPV) for CIN2+ was 20.0% in the first positive HPV test and 40.0% in the repeat HPV test. The women with CIN2+ had normal cytology. No cancer or glandular dysplasia was detected.
Interpretation: In this study older HPV-negative women were at risk of becoming HPV positive. Among the women who were HPV positive in a repeat test, there was a high risk of dysplasia.