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Sci Total Environ. 2020 Apr 10;712:136368. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.136368. Epub 2019 Dec 28.

Malaria epidemics in India: Role of climatic condition and control measures.

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Department of Business Development, Ofogh Kourosh Chain Stores, Tehran, Iran.
Department of Preventive and Social Medicine, Rajendra Institute of Medical Sciences, Ranchi, India.
Department of Biology, Faculty of Arts & Sciences, Aydin Adnan Menderes University, Aydin, Turkey.
Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of North Texas Health Science Center, Fort Worth, TX 76107, USA.
Department of Medical Entomology and Vector Control, School of Public Health, Tehran School of Medical Science, Tehran, Iran.
School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, United States.
Department of Information System in Cleveland State University, USA.
Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of North Texas Health Science Center, Fort Worth, TX 76107, USA. Electronic address:


Malaria is a major public health problem in India, which is the second most populous country in the world. This study aimed to investigate the impact of climatic parameters and malaria control efforts implemented by the Indian national malaria control program on malaria epidemics between January of 2009 and December of 2015. A chi-squared test was used to study the correlation of all implemented control methods with occurrence of epidemics within 30, 45, 60 and 90 days and in the same district, 50, 100 and 200 km distance radiuses. The effect of each control method on probability of epidemics was also measured, and the effects of district population, season, and incidence of malaria parasite types were evaluated using logistic regression models. Fever survey was found to be effective for decreasing the odds of epidemics within 45, 60 and 90 days in 100 km. Anti-larval activity was also effective within 30, 45 and 60 days in 200 km. Winter had negative effects on odds ratio while summer and fall were more likely to trigger epidemics. These results contribute to understanding the role of climate variability and control efforts performed in India.


Epidemics; Outbreak; Public health; Seasonal influence; Vector-borne disease

Conflict of interest statement

Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

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