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Stat Med. 1988 Sep;7(9):947-54.

Prediction of outcome of anaesthesia in patients over 40 years: a multifactorial risk index.

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Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale, Unité 164, Villejuif, France.


The prediction of outcome of anaesthesia in patients over 40 years of age was assessed using a multifactorial index based on current preoperative factors recorded prospectively. The study was conducted using a representative sample of anaesthetizations (except for cardiac surgery) including 517 cases with major complication (occurring during or within 24 hours of anaesthesia) and a one in fifty random sample comprising 1538 cases without complication. A split sample approach was adopted and a logistic regression model was applied to two subsets of similar size. Four preoperative factors were significantly associated with the occurrence of complications: ASA physical status, age, surgical procedure (major/minor) and type (elective/emergency). Goodness-of-fit of the model was assessed using another sample of 332 cases with complication and a different subset of 987 cases without complication. The model fitted the data well (p = 0.15).

[Indexed for MEDLINE]

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