Exercise Echocardiography Predicts Future Development of Pulmonary Hypertension in a High-risk Cohort of Patients with Systemic Sclerosis

Objective: To evaluate whether a positive exercise echocardiogram (EE) predicts future development of pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) in a high-risk cohort of patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc).

Methods: Patients with SSc with features associated with an increased risk for PAH were recruited into a prospective, observational cohort. All patients underwent clinical assessment and EE. A positive EE was defined as an increase of ≥ 20 mmHg in the right ventricular systolic pressure with exercise. All patients with positive EE underwent right heart catheterization (RHC).

Results: The study included 85 patients. In the positive EE cohort, 10 of 43 patients (23%) developed resting pulmonary hypertension (PH) on RHC over a mean 4-year followup period [4 with PAH, 5 with pulmonary venous hypertension (PVH), and 1 with PH associated with interstitial lung disease]. In the persistently negative EE cohort, only 3 of 42 patients (7%) developed resting PH (1 PAH, 2 PVH; p = 0.04). Of the remaining 33 patients in the positive EE group who did not develop resting PH, 22 (67%) had a persistently positive EE over an average 5-year followup period.

Conclusion: In this high-risk cohort of patients with SSc, a positive EE may predict the future development of resting PH. In addition, a majority of patients may have a persistently positive EE for years without progression to resting PH. Finally, a consistently negative EE may identify patients at low risk for future PH.