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Pharmacoeconomics. 2019 Nov 11. doi: 10.1007/s40273-019-00855-9. [Epub ahead of print]

Development and Validation of the TRansparent Uncertainty ASsessmenT (TRUST) Tool for Assessing Uncertainties in Health Economic Decision Models.

Author information

1
Maastricht University Medical Centre, Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Medical Technology Assessment, School for Public Health and Primary Care (CAPHRI), P. Debyelaan 25, PO Box 5800, 6202 AZ, Maastricht, The Netherlands. Sabine.grimm@mumc.nl.
2
Maastricht University Medical Centre, Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Medical Technology Assessment, School for Public Health and Primary Care (CAPHRI), P. Debyelaan 25, PO Box 5800, 6202 AZ, Maastricht, The Netherlands.
3
Zorginstituut Nederland, Willem Dudokhof 1, 1112 ZA, Diemen, The Netherlands.
4
Department for Health Evidence, Radboud University Medical Centre, Post 133, PO Box 9101, 6500 HB, Nijmegen, The Netherlands.

Abstract

BACKGROUND:

An increasing number of technologies are obtaining marketing authorisation based on sparse evidence, which causes growing uncertainty and risk within health technology reimbursement decision making. To ensure that uncertainty is considered and addressed within health technology assessment (HTA) recommendations, uncertainties need to be identified, included in health economic models, and reported.

OBJECTIVE:

Our objective was to develop the TRansparent Uncertainty ASsessmenT (TRUST) tool for systematically identifying, assessing, and reporting uncertainties in decision models, with the aim of making uncertainties and their impact on cost effectiveness more explicit and transparent.

METHODS:

TRUST was developed by drawing on the uncertainty and risk assessment literature. To develop and validate this tool, we conducted HTA stakeholder discussion meetings and interviews and applied it in six real-world HTA case studies in the Netherlands and the UK.

RESULTS:

The TRUST tool enables the identification and categorisation of uncertainty according to its source (transparency issues, methodology issues, and issues with evidence: imprecision, bias and indirectness, and unavailability) in each model aspect. The source of uncertainty determines the appropriate analysis. The impact of uncertainties on cost effectiveness is also assessed. Stakeholders found using the tool to be feasible and of value for transparent uncertainty assessment. TRUST can be used during model development and/or model review.

CONCLUSION:

The TRUST tool enables systematic identification, assessment, and reporting of uncertainties in health economic models and may contribute to more informed and transparent decision making in the face of uncertainty.

PMID:
31709496
DOI:
10.1007/s40273-019-00855-9

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