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Sci Rep. 2019 Nov 6;9(1):16095. doi: 10.1038/s41598-019-52653-0.

China's Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Future Trajectories and Mitigation Options and Potential.

Author information

1
Energy Analysis and Environmental Impacts Division, Energy Technologies Area, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory,1 Cyclotron Road, Berkeley, California, USA. j_lin@lbl.gov.
2
Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, Berkeley, California, USA. j_lin@lbl.gov.
3
Energy Analysis and Environmental Impacts Division, Energy Technologies Area, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory,1 Cyclotron Road, Berkeley, California, USA.
4
Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China. tengfei@tsinghua.edu.cn.
5
Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.

Abstract

Forecasts indicate that China's non-carbon dioxide (CO2) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will increase rapidly from the 2014 baseline of 2 billion metric tons of CO2 equivalent (CO2e). Previous studies of the potential for mitigating non-CO2 GHG emissions in China have focused on timeframes through only 2030, or only on certain sectors or gases. This study uses a novel bottom-up end-use model to estimate mitigation of China's non-CO2 GHGs under a Mitigation Scenario whereby today's cost-effective and technologically feasible CO2 and non-CO2 mitigation measures are deployed through 2050. The study determines that future non-CO2 GHG emissions are driven largely by industrial and agricultural sources and that China could reduce those emissions by 47% by 2050 while enabling total GHG emissions to peak by 2023. Except for F-gas mitigation, few national or sectoral policies have focused on reducing non-CO2 GHGs. Policy, market, and other institutional support are needed to realize the cost-effective mitigation potentials identified in this study.

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