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Nicotine Tob Res. 2019 Nov 4. pii: ntz157. doi: 10.1093/ntr/ntz157. [Epub ahead of print]

The Relationship Between Electronic Cigarette Use and Conventional Cigarette Smoking Is Largely Attributable to Shared Risk Factors.

Kim S1, Selya AS1,2,3.

Author information

1
Department of Population Health, School of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND.
2
Behavioral Sciences Group, Sanford Research, Sioux Falls, SD.
3
Department of Pediatrics, Sanford School of Medicine, University of South Dakota, Sioux Falls, SD.

Abstract

INTRODUCTION:

The growing popularity of electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) among youth raises concerns about possible causal effects on conventional cigarette smoking. However, past research remains inconclusive due to heavy confounding between cigarette and e-cigarette use. This study uses propensity score methods to robustly adjust for shared risk in estimating the relationship between e-cigarette use and conventional smoking.

METHODS:

Cross-sectional data from 8th and 10th graders were drawn from the 2015-2016 waves of Monitoring the Future (n = 12 421). The effects of (1) lifetime and (2) current e-cigarette use on (A) lifetime and (B) current conventional cigarette smoking were examined using logistic regression analyses with inverse propensity weighting based on 14 associated risk factors.

RESULTS:

After accounting for the propensity for using e-cigarettes based on 14 risk factors, both lifetime and current e-cigarette use significantly increased the risk of ever smoking a conventional cigarette (OR = 2.49, 95% CI = 1.77 to 3.51; OR = 2.32, 95% CI = 1.66 to 3.25, respectively). However, lifetime (OR = 2.17, 95% CI = 0.62 to 7.63) and current e-cigarette use (OR = 0.95, 95% CI = 0.55 to 1.63) did not significantly increase the risk of current conventional cigarette smoking.

CONCLUSIONS:

E-cigarette use does not appear to be associated with current, continued smoking. Instead, the apparent relationship between e-cigarette use and current conventional smoking is fully explained by shared risk factors, thus failing to support claims that e-cigarettes have a causal effect on concurrent conventional smoking among youth. E-cigarette use has a remaining association with lifetime cigarette smoking after propensity score adjustment; however, future research is needed to determine whether this is a causal relationship or merely reflects unmeasured confounding.

IMPLICATIONS:

This study examines the relationship between e-cigarette use and conventional smoking using inverse propensity score weighting, an innovative statistical method that produces less-biased results in the presence of heavy confounding. Our findings show that the apparent relationship between e-cigarette use and current cigarette smoking is entirely attributable to shared risk factors for tobacco use. However, e-cigarette use is associated with lifetime cigarette smoking, though further research is needed to determine whether this is a causal relationship or merely reflects unaccounted-for confounding. Propensity score weighting produced significantly weaker effect estimations compared to conventional regression control.

PMID:
31680169
DOI:
10.1093/ntr/ntz157

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