Send to

Choose Destination
J Emerg Trauma Shock. 2019 Jul-Sep;12(3):192-197. doi: 10.4103/JETS.JETS_145_18.

A Novel Risk Score to Predict Post-Trauma Mortality in Nonagenarians.

Author information

Department of Surgery, Elmhurst Hospital Center, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, USA.
School of Medicine, St. George's University, Grenada, West Indies, Grenada.
George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA.
Department of Surgery, NYU Brooklyn Hospital, Brooklyn, New York, USA.



Nonagenarians represent a rapidly growing age group who often have functional limitations and multiple comorbidities, predisposing them to trauma.


The purpose of this study was to identify patient characteristics, hospital complications, and comorbidities that predict in-hospital mortality in the nonagenarian population following trauma. We also sought to create a scoring system using these variables.

Settings and Design:

This study was a retrospective chart review.


We reviewed the medical records of 548 nonagenarian trauma patients admitted to two Level I trauma centers from 2006 to 2015. Statistical analysis was performed using logistic regression and a machine learning model, which calculated significant variables and computed a scoring system.


The in-hospital mortality rate was 7.1% (n = 39). Significant predictors of mortality were cardiac comorbidity, neuro-concussion, New Injury Severity Score (ISS) 16+, striking an object, ISS 25-75, and pulmonary and cardiac complications. Significant variables were assigned a numeric value. A score of 5+ carried a 41.1% mortality risk, 79% sensitivity, and 91% specificity. A score of 10+ had an associated 81.8% mortality risk with 31% specificity and 99% sensitivity.


Our findings identified reliable predictors of mortality in nonagenarian population posttrauma. The scoring system performs with good specificity and sensitivity and incrementally correlates with mortality risk.


Mortality risk; nonagenarian; trauma

Supplemental Content

Full text links

Icon for Medknow Publications and Media Pvt Ltd Icon for PubMed Central
Loading ...
Support Center