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Ambio. 2019 Nov;48(11):1362-1376. doi: 10.1007/s13280-019-01235-5. Epub 2019 Sep 10.

Future projections of record-breaking sea surface temperature and cyanobacteria bloom events in the Baltic Sea.

Author information

1
Department of Physical Oceanography and Instrumentation, Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, 18119, Rostock, Germany. markus.meier@io-warnemuende.de.
2
Department of Research and Development, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, 60 176, Norrköping, Sweden. markus.meier@io-warnemuende.de.
3
Department of Research and Development, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, 60 176, Norrköping, Sweden.
4
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, 42 671, Västra Frölunda, Sweden.
5
Department of Physical Oceanography and Instrumentation, Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, 18119, Rostock, Germany.
6
Environment and Energy Section, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Instituto Superior Técnico, Technical University of Lisbon, 1049-001, Lisbon, Portugal.

Abstract

Aiming to inform both marine management and the public, coupled environmental-climate scenario simulations for the future Baltic Sea are analyzed. The projections are performed under two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (medium and high-end) and three nutrient load scenarios spanning the range of plausible socio-economic pathways. Assuming an optimistic scenario with perfect implementation of the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP), the projections suggest that the achievement of Good Environmental Status will take at least a few more decades. However, for the perception of the attractiveness of beach recreational sites, extreme events such as tropical nights, record-breaking sea surface temperature (SST), and cyanobacteria blooms may be more important than mean ecosystem indicators. Our projections suggest that the incidence of record-breaking summer SSTs will increase significantly. Under the BSAP, record-breaking cyanobacteria blooms will no longer occur in the future, but may reappear at the end of the century in a business-as-usual nutrient load scenario.

KEYWORDS:

Climate change; Coastal seas; Cyanobacteria; Extremes; Numerical modeling; Sea surface temperature

PMID:
31506843
PMCID:
PMC6814679
[Available on 2020-11-01]
DOI:
10.1007/s13280-019-01235-5
[Indexed for MEDLINE]

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