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Alzheimers Dement (Amst). 2019 Jul 29;11:529-537. doi: 10.1016/j.dadm.2019.04.011. eCollection 2019 Dec.

Added value of amyloid PET in individualized risk predictions for MCI patients.

Author information

1
Department of Neurology, Alzheimer Center Amsterdam, Amsterdam Neuroscience, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam UMC, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
2
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam UMC, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
3
Department of Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam UMC, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.

Abstract

Introduction:

To construct a prognostic model based on amyloid positron emission tomography (PET) to predict clinical progression in individual patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI).

Methods:

We included 411 MCI patients from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. Prognostic models were constructed with Cox regression with demographics, magnetic resonance imaging, and/or amyloid PET to predict progression to Alzheimer's disease dementia. The models were validated in the Amsterdam Dementia Cohort.

Results:

The combined model (Harrell's C = 0.82 [0.78-0.86]) was significantly superior to demographics (β = 0.100, P < .001), magnetic resonance imaging (β = 0.037, P = .011), and PET only models (β = 0.053, P = .003).The models can be used to calculate individualized risk, for example, a female MCI patient (age = 60, APOE ε4 positive, Mini-Mental State Examination = 25, hippocampal volume = 5.8 cm3, amyloid PET positive) has 35% (19-57) risk in one year and 85% (64-97) risk in three years. Model performances in the Amsterdam Dementia Cohort were reasonable.

Discussion:

The present study facilitates the interpretation of an amyloid PET result in the context of a patient's own characteristics and clinical assessment.

KEYWORDS:

Alzheimer's disease; Amyloid positron emission tomography; Biomarkers; MCI; Progression

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