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Environ Int. 2019 Jul 24;131:105027. doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2019.105027. [Epub ahead of print]

Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability.

Author information

1
Graduate School of Public Health, Institute of Health and Environment, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
2
Graduate School of Public Health, Institute of Health and Environment, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea. Electronic address: hokim@snu.ac.kr.
3
Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
4
School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA.
5
Air Health Science Division, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada; School of Epidemiology & Public Health, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada.
6
Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Instituto de Investigaciones Gino Germani, Buenos Aires, Argentina.
7
School of Public Health, Institute of Environment and Human Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China; Shanghai Children's Medical Centre, Shanghi Jiao-Tong University, Shanghai, China; School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.
8
Institute of Advanced Studies of the University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil; Climate Change Cluster, Faculty of Sciences, University of Technology-Sydney, Sydney, Australia.
9
Institute of Advanced Studies of the University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
10
Department of Public Health, Universidad de los Andes, Santiago, Chile.
11
School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education, Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment of the Ministry of Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China; Shanghai Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Particle Pollution and Prevention (LAP3), Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
12
Hospital Vista Hermosa, Bogotá, Colombia.
13
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic; Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic.
14
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic.
15
Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia; Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden.
16
Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia.
17
Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland.
18
Santé Publique France, French National Public Health Agency, Saint Maurice, France.
19
School of Physics, Dublin Institute of Technology, Dublin, Ireland.
20
Institute of Environment, Health and Societies, Brunel University London, London, UK.
21
Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome, Italy.
22
Department of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan.
23
Faculty of Health and Sport Science, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan.
24
Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico.
25
Department of Environmental Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan.
26
Department of Epidemiology, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr. Ricardo Jorge, Lisboa, Portugal.
27
Department of Epidemiology, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr. Ricardo Jorge, Lisboa, Portugal; EPIUnit - Instituto de Saúde Pública, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal.
28
Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, Spanish Council for Scientific Research, Barcelona, Spain.
29
Department of Statistics and Computational Research, University of Valencia, Environmental Health Joint Research Unit FiSABIO-UV-UJI CIBERESP, Spain.
30
Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden.
31
Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland.
32
Environmental and Occupational Medicine, National Taiwan University, NTU Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan.
33
Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
34
Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy of Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam; The Institute of Research and Development, Duy Tan University, Da Nang, Viet Nam.
35
Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy of Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam.
36
Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar 9617916487, Khorasan Razavi, Iran.
37
Laboratory of Management in Science and Public Health, National Agency for Public Health of the Ministry of Health of R. Moldova, Chisinau, Republic of Moldova.
38
Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia; Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia.

Abstract

An increase in the global health burden of temperature was projected for 459 locations in 28 countries worldwide under four representative concentration pathway scenarios until 2099. We determined that the amount of temperature increase for each 100 ppm increase in global CO2 concentrations is nearly constant, regardless of climate scenarios. The overall average temperature increase during 2010-2099 is largest in Canada (1.16 °C/100 ppm) and Finland (1.14 °C/100 ppm), while it is smallest in Ireland (0.62 °C/100 ppm) and Argentina (0.63 °C/100 ppm). In addition, for each 1 °C temperature increase, the amount of excess mortality is increased largely in tropical countries such as Vietnam (10.34%p/°C) and the Philippines (8.18%p/°C), while it is decreased in Ireland (-0.92%p/°C) and Australia (-0.32%p/°C). To understand the regional variability in temperature increase and mortality, we performed a regression-based modeling. We observed that the projected temperature increase is highly correlated with daily temperature range at the location and vulnerability to temperature increase is affected by health expenditure, and proportions of obese and elderly population.

KEYWORDS:

Climate change; Mortality; Projection; Regional variation; Vulnerability

PMID:
31351381
DOI:
10.1016/j.envint.2019.105027
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