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J Med Virol. 2019 Oct;91(10):1837-1844. doi: 10.1002/jmv.25533. Epub 2019 Jul 16.

Natural history of liver-related disease in patients with chronic hepatitis C virus infection: An analysis using a Markov chain model.

Author information

1
Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Ogaki Municipal Hospital, Ogaki, Gifu, Japan.
2
Department of Epidemiology, Infectious Disease Control, and Prevention, Hiroshima University Institute of Biomedical and Health Sciences, Hiroshima, Japan.
3
Faculty of Nursing, Gifu Kyoritsu University, Ogaki, Gifu, Japan.

Abstract

BACKGROUND:

Long-term prognosis of patients with chronic hepatitis C infection (HCV) remains incompletely characterized. We investigated the long-term prognosis of liver disease in patients with chronic HCV infection who have not received antiviral therapy.

METHODS:

A total of 2304 patients with chronic HCV who were not received interferon-based therapy were included.

RESULTS:

In the assessment of 1-year disease state of liver transition probabilities, progression to chronic hepatitis occurred in 12% to 14% of patients across all age groups in male asymptomatic carriers. In male patients with chronic hepatitis, progression to cirrhosis was observed mostly in the 60 to 69 (7.6%) and ≥70 age groups (9.6%). In addition, in male patients with cirrhosis, HCC development occurred in approximately 5% of patients over the age of 40. In female asymptomatic carriers, progression to chronic hepatitis was observed in 6% to 14% of patients across all age groups. In female patients with chronic hepatitis, progression to cirrhosis was observed mostly in the 60 to 69 (8.7%) and ≥70 (7.4%) age groups. In addition, in female patients with cirrhosis, HCC development occurred in 0.9% to 3.3% of patients over the age of 50. Under assumptions of either chronic hepatitis or asymptomatic carrier state at age 40 as the starting condition for simulation over the following 40 years, the probability of HCC gradually increased with age and was higher in male patients.

CONCLUSIONS:

There is a risk of cirrhosis or HCC development in HCV patients with not only chronic hepatitis but the asymptomatic carrier state as well.

KEYWORDS:

Markov chain model; hepatitis C virus; interferon; natural history; transition probability

PMID:
31254403
DOI:
10.1002/jmv.25533

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