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Int J Prev Med. 2019 May 17;10:79. doi: 10.4103/ijpvm.IJPVM_188_17. eCollection 2019.

Trends and Risk Factors of Gastric Cancer in Iran (2005-2010).

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Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Sabzevar University of Medical Sciences, Sabzevar, Iran.
Department of Statistics and Epidemiology, Faculty of Health, Road Traffic Injury Research Center, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran.
Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran.
Department of Biostatistics, School of Paramedical Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Department of Biostatistics, School of Medicine, Shiraz University of Medical Science, Shiraz, Iran.
Department of Public Health, Mareagheh University of Medical Science, Maragheh, Iran.



Gastric cancer (GC) is the first and the third prevalent cancer among males and females in Iran, respectively. The aim of this study was mainly to identify high-risk areas of GC by assessing the spatial and temporal pattern of incidence, and second, to explore some risk factors of GC in ecological setting.


In this cross-sectional ecological study we used Bayesian hierarchical space-time model to measure the relative risk and temporal trends of GC in Iran from 2005 to 2010 based on available data. Data analysis was done by the use of integrated nested Laplace approximation Bayesian approach in R software.


Overall trend of GC was significantly decreasing during the study period. Ardabil, Khorasan Razavi, West Azarbaijan, Zanjan, and Mazandaran provinces had the highest risk of incidence. Overweight and smoking were directly and significantly associated with GC risk.


During the study period, GC has decreased in Iran. Nevertheless, GC risk was generally high in Northern and Northwestern provinces of Iran. Different health policies according to GC risk and trend are required for each province. Improvements in screening and education programs and conducting further epidemiological studies could help to reduce the incidence of GC in high risk provinces.


Bayesian; disease mapping; gastric cancer; hierarchical space-time

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