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Nature. 2019 Jul;571(7764):193-197. doi: 10.1038/s41586-019-1300-6. Epub 2019 Jun 12.

Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict.

Author information

1
Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA. mach@stanford.edu.
2
Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
3
Geography, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
4
Peace Research Institute Oslo, Oslo, Norway.
5
Department of Sociology and Political Science, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway.
6
Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
7
National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA, USA.
8
Department of Political Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
9
Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, Denver, CO, USA.
10
Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, DC, USA.
11
Institute of Development Policy (IOB), University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium.
12
Department of Economics, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK.
13
Institute of Behavioral Science and Department of Geography, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA.
14
Department of Government, William & Mary, Williamsburg, VA, USA.
15
Research Group Climate Change and Security (CLISEC), Institute of Geography, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany.
16
Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.

Abstract

Research findings on the relationship between climate and conflict are diverse and contested. Here we assess the current understanding of the relationship between climate and conflict, based on the structured judgments of experts from diverse disciplines. These experts agree that climate has affected organized armed conflict within countries. However, other drivers, such as low socioeconomic development and low capabilities of the state, are judged to be substantially more influential, and the mechanisms of climate-conflict linkages remain a key uncertainty. Intensifying climate change is estimated to increase future risks of conflict.

PMID:
31189956
DOI:
10.1038/s41586-019-1300-6

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