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Curr Biol. 2019 May 20;29(10):R356-R357. doi: 10.1016/j.cub.2019.04.001.

Cradles of diversity are unlikely relics of regional climate stability.

Author information

1
The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia; Center for Macroecology, Evolution, and Climate, Natural History Museum of Denmark, University of Copenhagen, Universitetsparken 15, 2100 Copenhagen O, Denmark. Electronic address: damien.fordham@adelaide.edu.au.
2
The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia.
3
The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia; Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307-3000, USA.
4
Center for Macroecology, Evolution, and Climate, Natural History Museum of Denmark, University of Copenhagen, Universitetsparken 15, 2100 Copenhagen O, Denmark; Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Ascot SL5 7PY, UK.

Abstract

The stability of regional climates on millennial timescales is theorised to be a primary determinant of nearby diversification [1-5]. Using simulated patterns of past temperature change at monthly timescales [6], we show that the locations of climatically stable regions are likely to have varied considerably across and within millennia during glacial-interglacial cycles of the Late Quaternary. This result has important implications for the role of regional climate stability in theories of speciation, because long-term climate refugia are typically presumed to be 'cradles' of diversity (areas of high speciation) only if they remain stable across Milankovitch climate oscillations [1-5], which operate on multi-millennial time scales [7].

PMID:
31112682
DOI:
10.1016/j.cub.2019.04.001

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