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Ann Surg. 2019 Jun;269(6):1192-1199. doi: 10.1097/SLA.0000000000002722.

Increased Rate of Long-term Mortality Among Burn Survivors: A Population-based Matched Cohort Study.

Author information

Sunnybrook Research Institute, Toronto, Canada.
Division of General Surgery, Department of General Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada.
Institute for Health Policy, Management, and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada.
Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences, Toronto, Canada.
Interdepartmental Division of Critical Care, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada.
Department of Family and Community Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada.
Ross Tilley Burn Centre, Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, Toronto, Canada.
Institute of Medical Sciences, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada.



To estimate long-term mortality following major burn injury compared with matched controls.


The effect of sustaining a major burn injury on long-term life expectancy is poorly understood.


Using health administrative data, all adults who survived to discharge after major burn injury between 2003 and 2013 were matched to between 1 and 5 uninjured controls on age, sex, and the extent of both physical and psychological comorbidity. To account for socioeconomic factors such as residential instability and material deprivation, we also matched on marginalization index. The primary outcome was 5-year all-cause mortality, and all patients were followed until death or March 31, 2014. Cumulative mortality estimates were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to estimate the association of burn injury with mortality.


In total, 1965 burn survivors of mean age 44 (standard deviation 17) years with median total body surface area burn of 15% [interquartile range (IQR) 5-15] were matched to 8671 controls and followed for a median 5 (IQR 2.5-8) years. Five-year mortality was significantly greater among burn survivors (11 vs 4%, P < 0.001). The hazard ratio was greatest during the first year (4.15, 95% CI 3.17-5.42), and declined each year thereafter, reaching 1.65 (95% CI 1.02-2.67) in the fifth year after discharge. Burn survivors had increased mortality related to trauma (mortality rate ratio, MRR 9.8, 95% CI 5-19) and mental illness (MRR 9.1, 95% CI 4-23).


Burn survivors have a significantly higher rate of long-term mortality than matched controls, particularly related to trauma and mental illness. Burn follow-up should be focused on injury prevention, mental healthcare, and detection and treatment of new disease.

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