Profitability of dairy cows submitted to the first service with the Presynch-Ovsynch or Double-Ovsynch protocol and different duration of the voluntary waiting period

The objective of this study was to compare cash flow and parameters of economic performance for dairy cows submitted to the first service using a combination of insemination at detected estrus and timed AI (TAI) in cows synchronized with the Presynch-Ovsynch (PSOv) protocol versus all TAI after synchronization of ovulation with the Double-Ovsynch (DO) protocol with different durations of the voluntary waiting period. A secondary objective was to calculate the variation in cash flow under different input pricing scenarios through stochastic Monte Carlo simulation. Lactating Holstein cows from a commercial dairy farm were randomly assigned to 3 first-service management programs. Cows in the PSOv treatment (n = 450) received first service through a combination of insemination at detected estrus after a voluntary waiting period of 50 d in milk (DIM; i.e., after second PGF_2α treatment of the protocol) and TAI at 72 ± 3 DIM. Cows in the DO60 (n = 458) and DO88 (n = 462) treatments received first service by TAI at 60 ± 3 and 88 ± 3 DIM, respectively. Individual cow cash flow was calculated for the calving interval after enrollment and for an 18-mo period after calving. Cash flow was the aggregation of daily income over feed cost, replacement cost, calf value, recombinant bovine somatotropin treatment cost, reproductive cost, and other operating expenses. All analyses were conducted separately for primiparous and multiparous cows. Continuous, binomial, and time to event outcomes were analyzed using ANOVA, logistic regression, and Cox's proportional hazard regression in SAS (SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC). Treatments affected the dynamics of pregnancy creation, which affected time to pregnancy during lactation. As a result, we observed differences in the proportion of nonpregnant cows at the end of lactation, herd exit dynamics, lactation length, calving interval, and proportion of cows that calved again. Some of these effects varied by parity, affecting the direction and magnitude of treatment differences within parity group. For primiparous cows, maximum cash flow differences per slot for the 18-mo period were in the range of $26 (PSOv > DO60) to $29 (DO88 > DO60) but did not differ statistically. For multiparous cows, maximum cash flow differences per slot for the 18-mo period were in the range of $122 (PSOv > DO88) to $155 (DO60 > DO88) but did not differ statistically. Despite the substantial differences in cash flow (in particular for multiparous cows) caused by the effect of treatments on reproductive performance, herd exit dynamics, and calving interval, large variability in overall cash flow among individual cows and compensation between multiple outcomes resulted in lack of statistical differences in cash flow. Outcomes from the stochastic analysis indicated that similar trends for differences between treatments would be observed under varying scenarios for economic input values. In conclusion, we did not detect statistically significant cash flow differences between the PSOv, DO60, and DO88 treatments, but numerical trends and stochastic simulation indicated that the DO88 and PSOv treatments were more economically favorable than the DO60 treatment for primiparous cows. For multiparous cows, the DO60 and PSOv treatments were more economically favorable than the DO88 treatment.