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PLoS One. 2019 Feb 14;14(2):e0211622. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0211622. eCollection 2019.

Trend and projection of mortality rate due to non-communicable diseases in Iran: A modeling study.

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Modeling in Health Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.
Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Endocrinology and Metabolism Clinical Sciences Institute of Tehran University of medical sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Department of biostatistics and epidemiology, School of Public Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.
Regional Knowledge Hub, and WHO Collaborating Centre for HIV Surveillance, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.



Following the epidemiologic and demographic transition, non-communicable disease mortality is the leading cause of death in Iran. Projecting mortality trend can provide valuable tools for policy makers and planners. In this article, we have estimated the trend of non-communicable disease mortality during 2001-2015 and have projected it until 2030 at national and subnational levels in Iran.


The data employed was gathered from the Iranian death registration system and using the Spatio-temporal model, the trends of 4 major categories of non-communicable diseases (cancers, cardiovascular diseases, asthma and COPD, and diabetes) by 2030 were projected at the national and subnational levels.


The results indicated that age standardized mortality rate for cancers, CVDs, and Asthma and COPD will continue to decrease in both sexes (cancers: from 81.8 in 2015 to 45.2 in 2030, CVDs: 307.3 to 173.0, and Asthma and COPD: from 52.1 to 46.6); however, in terms of diabetes, there is a steady trend in both sexes at national level (from 16.6 to 16.5). Age standardized mortality rates for cancers and CVDs, in males and females, were high in all provinces in 2001. The variation between the provinces is clearer in 2015, and it is expected to significantly decrease in all provinces by 2030.


Generally, the age standardized mortality rate from NCDs will decrease by 2030. Of course, given the experience of the past two decades in Iran, believing that the mortality rate will decrease may not be an easy notion to understand. However hard to believe, this decrease may be the result of better management of risk factors and early detection of patients due to more comprehensive care in all segments of society, as well as improved literacy and awareness across the country.

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