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BMC Public Health. 2019 Jan 31;19(1):140. doi: 10.1186/s12889-019-6445-6.

Incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus and prediabetes in Kerala, India: results from a 10-year prospective cohort.

Author information

1
Medical Trust Hospital and Diabetes Care Centre, Kulanada, Pathanamthitta (district), Kerala, 689503, India.
2
Achutha Menon Centre, Sree Chitra Tirunal Institute for Medical Sciences and Technology, Thiruvananthapuram, India.
3
Christian Medical College, Vellore, Tamil Nadu, India.
4
Rajiv Gandhi Centre for Biotechnology, Thycaud post, Poojappura, Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala, 695014, India. jaleel@rgcb.res.in.

Abstract

BACKGROUND:

Kerala, the southern state of India, has experienced sudden rise in the prevalence estimates of diabetes. A cohort study on the incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in Kerala state thus aptly bridges the lacuna of incidence estimate of T2DM from a population at risk.

METHODS:

A 10-year prospective cohort study was carried out in two urban wards of central Kerala. The individuals who participated in the baseline survey in 2007 were again invited for a follow-up study in 2017. The data was analyzed using IBM SPSS Statistics for windows (version 21.0). Logistic regression analysis was used to estimate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals. Findings are based on the 10-year follow-up data from 869 participants from the cohort.

RESULTS:

The overall follow-up and response rate of the study was 68.9 and 86.9% respectively. During the follow-up period, 190 people (21.9%) developed T2DM. The incidence rate of T2DM and impaired fasting glucose (IFG) were 24.5 per 1000 person years and 45.01 per 1000 person years respectively. Nearly 60% of participants with baseline IFG were converted to T2DM group in the follow-up period. Age > 45 years, family history of T2DM, BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2 and presence of central obesity emerged as important risk factors for incident T2DM.

CONCLUSION:

High incidence of prediabetes over diabetes observed in this study shows an epidemic trend of T2DM in Kerala, India. It requires an immediate public health action.

KEYWORDS:

Asian Indians; Cohort; Incidence; Prediabetes; Type 2 diabetes

PMID:
30704495
PMCID:
PMC6357479
DOI:
10.1186/s12889-019-6445-6
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article

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