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Diabet Med. 2019 Oct;36(10):1217-1225. doi: 10.1111/dme.13902. Epub 2019 Feb 13.

Projected number of people with diagnosed Type 2 diabetes in Germany in 2040.

Author information

1
Institute for Biometrics and Epidemiology, German Diabetes Center (DDZ), Leibniz Center for Diabetes Research at Heinrich Heine University, Düsseldorf, Germany.
2
Department of Epidemiology and Health Monitoring, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany.
3
Hiller Research Unit for Rheumatology, University Hospital Duesseldorf, Düsseldorf, Germany.

Abstract

AIMS:

To project the number of people with Type 2 diabetes in Germany between 2015 and 2040.

METHODS:

Based on data from 65 million insurees of the German statutory health insurance, we projected the age-specific prevalence of diabetes using mathematical relations between prevalence, incidence rate and mortality. We compared several scenarios regarding temporal trends in the incidence and mortality rate. The projected age-specific prevalence was applied to the projected age structure of the German population between 2015 and 2040 to calculate the number of people with Type 2 diabetes.

RESULTS:

Application of current age-specific prevalence estimates to the projected age structure in 2040, although ignoring temporal trends in incidence and mortality, yielded an increase in the number of Type 2 diabetes cases from 6.9 million in 2015 to 8.3 million (+21%) in 2040. More realistic scenarios that account for decreasing mortality rates and different trends in the incidence rates project between 10.7 million (+54%) and 12.3 million (+77%) Type 2 diabetes cases in 2040.

CONCLUSIONS:

For the first time, we projected the number of future Type 2 diabetes cases for the whole adult population in Germany. The results indicate a relative increase in the number of Type 2 diabetes cases of between 54% and 77% from 2015 to 2040. Temporal trends in the incidence rate are the main drivers of this increase. Simply applying current age-specific prevalence to the future age structure probably underestimates the future number of Type 2 diabetes cases.

PMID:
30659656
DOI:
10.1111/dme.13902

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