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J Autism Dev Disord. 2019 May;49(5):1825-1836. doi: 10.1007/s10803-018-3855-8.

Temperament as an Early Risk Marker for Autism Spectrum Disorders? A Longitudinal Study of High-Risk and Low-Risk Infants.

Author information

1
Department of Cognitive Neuroscience, Donders Institute for Brain, Cognition and Behaviour, Radboud University Medical Centre, Nijmegen, The Netherlands. mirjam.pijl@radboudumc.nl.
2
Karakter Child and Adolescent Psychiatry University Centre, Nijmegen, The Netherlands. mirjam.pijl@radboudumc.nl.
3
Department of Cognitive Neuroscience, Donders Institute for Brain, Cognition and Behaviour, Radboud University Medical Centre, Nijmegen, The Netherlands.
4
Psychology Department, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience, King's College London, London, UK.
5
Centre for Brain and Cognitive Development, Birkbeck College, University of London, London, UK.
6
Psychology Department, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
7
Karakter Child and Adolescent Psychiatry University Centre, Nijmegen, The Netherlands.
8
Department of Psychiatry, Radboud University Medical Centre, Nijmegen, The Netherlands.

Abstract

To investigate temperament as an early risk marker for autism spectrum disorder (ASD), we examined parent-reported temperament for high-risk (HR, n = 170) and low-risk (LR, n = 77) siblings at 8, 14, and 24 months. Diagnostic assessment was performed at 36 months. Group-based analyses showed linear risk gradients, with more atypical temperament for HR-ASD, followed by HR-Atypical, HR-Typical, and LR siblings. Temperament differed significantly between outcome groups (0.03 ≤ ηp2 ≤ 0.34). Machine learning analyses showed that, at an individual level, HR-ASD siblings could not be identified accurately, whereas HR infants without ASD could. Our results emphasize the discrepancy between group-based and individual-based predictions and suggest that while temperament does not facilitate early identification of ASD individually, it may help identify HR infants who do not develop ASD.

KEYWORDS:

Autism spectrum disorder; High-risk; Longitudinal; Machine learning; Temperament

PMID:
30607781
DOI:
10.1007/s10803-018-3855-8
[Indexed for MEDLINE]

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