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Int J Prev Med. 2018 Nov 15;9:102. doi: 10.4103/ijpvm.IJPVM_415_17. eCollection 2018.

Predicting Long-Term Cardiovascular Events after Transient Ischemic Attacks: Carotid Artery Intima-Media Thickness or ABCD2 Score or Both?

Author information

1
Department of Neurology, School of Medicine, Alzahra University Hospital, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran.
2
Department of Neurology, School of Medicine, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran.

Abstract

Background:

Patients who experienced transient ischemic attack (TIA) are at high-risk for cardiovascular events. This study aims to evaluate diagnostic value of carotid artery intima-media thickness (CIMT) and ABCD2 score for predicting cardiovascular events in long-term follow-up after TIA. We prospectively included sixty patients with TIA who admitted to hospital from March 2016 to August 2016.

Methods:

Duplex ultrasonography of internal carotid arteries was performed. ABCD2 scores were evaluated for each patient. At a median follow-up of 20 months, patients were asked about new cardiovascular events. We used IBM SPSS software version 22.0 with Chi-squared, t-test, ANOVA, receiver operating characteristic, and area under the curve (AUC) analysis for our work.

Results:

Sensitivity and negative predictive value of the combined score (ABCD2+CIMT) was the highest (96.3% and 90.9%, respectively), and the specificity and positive predictive value of the CIMT were the highest (57.5% and 63.1%, respectively) to predict cardiovascular events in long-term.

Conclusion:

Compared to ABCD2 score, CIMT proved to be more accurate to predict cardiovascular events in long-term follow-ups (AUC = 0.736 vs. AUC = 0.640). However, adding CIMT value to ABCD2 score was even better (AUC = 0.750). Therefore, CIMT measurement in the ABCD2 score after TIA enables prediction of long-term cardiovascular events.

KEYWORDS:

Area under curve; carotid intima-media thickness; receiver operating characteristic curve; stroke; transient ischemic attack

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