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Circulation. 2019 Jan 2;139(1):24-36. doi: 10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.118.035640.

Potential Cardiovascular Disease Events Prevented with Adoption of the 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Blood Pressure Guideline.

Author information

1
Department of Population Health Sciences, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (A.B.P.).
2
Department of Epidemiology (L.D.C., J.N.B., E.B.L. P.M.), University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL.
3
Department of Public Health Sciences (R.S.C., H.K.), Loyola Medical Center, Maywood, IL.
4
Division of Nephrology and Hypertension (H.K.), Loyola Medical Center, Maywood, IL.
5
School of Biological and Population Health Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR (M.C.O.).
6
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics and Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco School of Medicine (K.B-D.).
7
Department of Medicine, Division of Cardiology (D.S.), Columbia University Medical Center, New York, NY.
8
Department of Epidemiology, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA (P.K.W.).
9
Department of Biostatistics (G.H.), University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL.
10
Division of General Medicine (B.K.B., A.E.M.), Columbia University Medical Center, New York, NY.
11
Department of Neurology and Physical Rehabilitation, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH (D.K.).
12
Department of Medicine, Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, NY (M.M.S.).

Abstract

BACKGROUND:

Over 10 years, achieving and maintaining 2017 ACC/AHA guideline goals could prevent 3.0 million (UR, 1.1-5.1 million), 0.5 million (UR, 0.2-0.7 million), and 1.4 million (UR, 0.6-2.0 million) cardiovascular disease (CVD) events compared with maintaining current blood pressure (BP) levels, achieving 2003 Seventh Joint National Committee Report goals, and achieving 2014 Eighth Joint National Committee goals, respectively. We estimated the number of cardiovascular disease events prevented and treatment-related serious adverse events incurred over 10 years among US adults with hypertension by achieving 2017 ACC/AHA guideline-recommended BP goals compared with (1) current BP levels, (2) achieving 2003 Seventh Joint National Committee Report BP goals, and (3) achieving 2014 Eighth Joint National Committee panel member report BP goals.

METHODS:

US adults aged ≥45 years with an indication for BP treatment were grouped according to recommendations for antihypertensive drug therapy in the 2017 ACC/AHA guideline, 2003 Seventh Joint National Committee Report, and 2014 Eighth Joint National Committee. Population sizes were estimated from the 2011 to 2014 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys. Rates for fatal and nonfatal CVD events (stroke, coronary heart disease, or heart failure) were estimated from the REGARDS (REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke) study, weighted to the US population. CVD risk reductions with treatment to BP goals and risk for serious adverse events were obtained from meta-analyses of BP-lowering trials. CVD events prevented and treatment-related nonfatal serious adverse events over 10 years were calculated. Uncertainty surrounding main data inputs was expressed in uncertainty ranges (UR).

RESULTS:

Over ten years, achieving and maintaining 2017 ACC/AHA guideline goals compared with current BP levels, achieving 2003 Seventh Joint National Committee Report goals, or achieving 2014 Eighth Joint National Committee goals could prevent 3.0 million (UR, 1.1-5.1 million), 0.5 million (UR, 0.2-0.7 million), or 1.4 million (UR, 0.6-2.0 million) CVD events, respectively. Compared with current BP levels, achieving and maintaining 2017 goals could prevent 71.9 (UR, 26.6-122.3) CVD events per 1000 treated. Achieving 2017 guideline BP goals compared with current BP levels could also lead to nearly 3.3 million more serious adverse events over 10 years (UR, 2.2-4.4 million).

CONCLUSIONS:

Achieving and maintaining 2017 ACC/AHA BP goals could prevent a greater number of CVD events than achieving 2003 Seventh Joint National Committee Report or 2014 Eighth Joint National Committee BP goals but could also lead to more serious adverse events.

KEYWORDS:

American Heart Association; United States; blood pressure; cardiology; cardiovascular disease; goals; hypertension

PMID:
30586736
PMCID:
PMC6311714
[Available on 2020-01-02]
DOI:
10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.118.035640

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