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Thorac Cardiovasc Surg. 2018 Nov 28. doi: 10.1055/s-0038-1675638. [Epub ahead of print]

Preoperative CHA2DS2-VASc Score Predicts Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation after Lobectomy.

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Department of Surgery, St. Luke's University Health Network, Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, United States.
Department of Surgery, Temple University School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States.



 Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) affects 10 to 20% of noncardiac thoracic surgeries and increases patient morbidity and costs. The purpose of this study is to determine if preoperative CHA2DS2-VASc score can predict POAF after pulmonary lobectomy for nonsmall cell lung cancer.


 Patients with complete CHA2DS2-VASc data who underwent lobectomies from January 2007 to January 2016 at a single institution were analyzed in a retrospective case-control study using a prospective database. An independent samples t-test was used to compare the mean CHA2DS2-VASc scores of POAF and non-POAF groups. A multivariable logistic regression analysis (MVA) evaluated the independent contribution of variables of the CHA2DS2-VASc score in predicting POAF. Chi-square test with univariate odds ratios (ORs) was used to determine a statistically significant cutoff score for predicting POAF.


 Of 525 total patients, 82 (15.6%) developed POAF (mean CHA2DS2-VASc score: 2.7) and 443 (84.4%) did not develop POAF (mean score: 2.3). Mean difference between these groups was significant at 0.43 (p = 0.01; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.09-0.76). In the MVA, significant predictors of POAF were age 65 to 74 years (adjusted OR [aOR] = 2.45; 95% CI: 1.31-4.70; p = 0.006) and age ≥75 years (aOR = 3.11; 95% CI: 1.62-5.95; p = 0.0006). Patients with CHA2DS2-VASc scores ≥5 had significantly increased OR for POAF (OR = 2.59; 95% CI: 1.22-5.50).


 Preoperatively calculated CHA2DS2-VASc score can predict POAF in patients undergoing pulmonary lobectomy. Age is the most statistically significant independent predictor, and patients with scores ≥5 have significantly increased risk. Trials for POAF prophylaxis should target this population.


Conflict of interest statement

Disclosure The authors report no conflicts of interest in this work.

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