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Sci Rep. 2018 Nov 19;8(1):16977. doi: 10.1038/s41598-018-34975-7.

Spatio-temporal cluster and distribution of human brucellosis in Shanxi Province of China between 2011 and 2016.

Author information

1
Shanxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Taiyuan, 030012, China.
2
China Railway Taiyuan Group Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Disease Control Division, Taiyuan, 030000, China.
3
Shanxi Medical University, School of Public Health, Taiyuan, 030001, China.
4
Qinghai Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Xining, 810007, China.
5
China Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 102206, China.
6
Shanxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Taiyuan, 030012, China. sxchenlimin@163.com.
7
Shanxi Medical University, School of Public Health, Taiyuan, 030001, China. qlx_1126@163.com.

Abstract

In recent years, the incidence of human brucellosis (HB) in the Shanxi province has ranked to be the top five among the 31 China provinces. HB data in Shanxi province between 2011 and 2016 were collected from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Spatial and temporal distribution of HB was evaluated using spatial autocorrelation analysis and space-time scan analysis. The global Moran's I index ranged from 0.37 to 0.50 between 2011 and 2016 (all P < 0.05), and the "high-high" clusters of HB were located at the northern Shanxi, while the "low-low" clusters in the central and southeastern Shanxi. The high-incidence time interval was between March and July with a 2-fold higher risk of HB compared to the other months in the same year. One most likely cluster and three secondary clusters were identified. The radius of the most likely cluster region was 158.03 km containing 10,051 HB cases. Compared to the remaining regions, people dwelling in the most likely region were reported 4.50-fold ascended risk of incident HB. HB cases during the high-risk time interval of each year were more likely to be younger, to be males or to be farmers or herdsman than that during the low-risk time interval. The HB incidence had a significantly high correlation with the number of the cattle or sheep especially in the northern Shanxi. HB in Shanxi showed unique spatio-temporal clustering. Public health concern for HB in Shanxi should give priority to the northern region especially between the late spring and early summer.

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