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Can Urol Assoc J. 2018 Nov 5. doi: 10.5489/cuaj.5586. [Epub ahead of print]

Identification of subgroups of metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) patients treated with abiraterone plus prednisone at low vs. high risk of radiographic progression: An analysis of COU-AA-302.

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Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Toronto General Research Institute, University Health Network, Toronto, ON, Canada.



Radiographic imaging is used to monitor disease progression for men with metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). The optimal frequency of imaging, a costly and limited resource, is not known. Our objective was to identify predictors of radiographic progression to inform the frequency of imaging for men with mCRPC.


We accessed data for men with chemotherapy-naive mCRPC in the abiraterone acetate plus prednisone (AA-P) group of a randomized trial (COU-AA-302) (n=546). We used Cox proportional hazards modelling to identify predictors of time to progression. We divided patients into groups based on the most important predictors and estimated the probability of radiographic progression-free survival (RPFS) at six and 12 months.


Baseline disease and change in prostate-specific antigen (PSA) at eight weeks were the strongest determinants of RPFS. The probability of RPFS for men with bone only disease and a ≥50% fall in PSA was 93% (95% confidence interval [CI] 87-96) at six months and 80% (95% CI 72-86) at 12 months. In contrast, the probability of RPFS for men with bone and soft metastasis and <50% fall in PSA was 55% (95% CI 41-67) at six months and 34% (95% CI 22-47) at 12 months. These findings should be externally validated.


Patients with chemotherapy-naive mCRPC treated with first-line AA-P can be divided into groups with significantly different risks of radiographic progression based on a few clinically available variables, suggesting that imaging schedules could be individualized.


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