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Clim Change. 2018 Oct;150(3-4):391-402. doi: 10.1007/s10584-018-2274-3. Epub 2018 Sep 13.

Temperature-related mortality impacts under and beyond Paris Agreement climate change scenarios.

Author information

1
Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel St, Bloomsbury, London WC1E 7HT, UK.
2
Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, 99 Commercial Road, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia.
3
Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Population Health, University of Queensland, St Lucia, Brisbane, QLD 4072, Australia.
4
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany.
5
Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Carretera de Utrera, 41013 Sevilla, Spain.
6
Climate Analytics, Ritterstraße 3, 10969 Berlin, Germany.
7
School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, University Road, Bristol BS8 1SS, UK.
8
School of Public Health and Institute of Environment and Human Health, Anhui Medical University, Meishan Road, Hefei 81 230032, China.
9
Shanghai Children's Medical Centre, Shanghai Jiao-Tong University, 1678 Dongfang Rd, Shanghai 200127, China.
10
School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, 2 George St, Brisbane City, QLD 4000, Australia.
11
Institute of Advanced Studies, University of São Paulo, Rua Praça do Relógio, 109, Building K, 5th floor, Cidade Universitária, ZC, São Paulo, São Paulo 05508-970, Brazil.
12
School of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Ottawa, 600 Peter Morand Crescent, Ottawa K1G 5Z3, Canada.
13
Healthy Environments and Consumer Safety Branch, Health Canada, Ottawa, Canada.
14
Department of Public Health, Universidad de los Andes, Mons. Alvaro del Portillo 12, 455 Santiago, Chile.
15
Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Fudan University, 138 Yi xue yuan Road, Shanghai 200032, China.
16
Department of Environmental Health, University of São Paulo, Av. Dr. Arnaldo, 715 - Cerqueira César, São Paulo, São Paulo 03178-200, Brazil.
17
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Bocni, 1401 14131 Prague, Czech Republic.
18
Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Kamycka, 129 16521 Prague, Czech Republic.
19
Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research, University of Oulu, Aapistie 5B, FI-90014 Oulu, Finland.
20
Santé Publique France, French National Public Health Agency, 12 rue du Val d'Osne, 94415 Saint Maurice, France.
21
School of Physics, Dublin Institute of Technology, Kevin Street 2, Dublin D08 X622, Ireland.
22
Institute of Environment, Health and Societies, Brunel University London, Kingston Ln, Uxbridge, London UB8 3PH, UK.
23
Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Via Cristoforo Colombo, 112 00147 Rome, Italy.
24
Department of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University, 1-12-4 Sakamoto Nagasaki, Nagasaki 852-8523, Japan.
25
Faculty of Health and Sport Sciences, University of Tsukuba, 1-1-1 Tennodai, Tsukuba 305-8574, Japan.
26
Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Universidad No. 655 Colonia Santa María Ahuacatitlán, Cerrada Los Pinos y Caminera, 62100 Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico.
27
Department of Environmental Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoudai Katsura Campus, Nishikyou Ward, Kyoto 615-8540, Japan.
28
Department of Global Ecology, Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies, Yoshidahonmachi, Sakyo Ward, Kyoto 606-8501, Japan.
29
Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, 1Gwanak-ro Gwanak-gu, Seoul 08826, Republic of Korea.
30
Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDAEA), Spanish Council for Scientific Research (CSIC), Jordi Girona 18-26, 08034 Barcelona, Spain.
31
Department of Statistics and Computational Research, Environmental Health Joint Research Unit FISABIO-UV-UJI CIBERESP, University of Valencia, Valencia, Spain.
32
Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, 901 85 Umeå, Sweden.
33
Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Socinstrasse 57, 4051 Basel, Switzerland.
34
University of Basel, Petersplatz 1, 4001 Basel, Switzerland.
35
Environmental and Occupational Medicine, and Institute of Occupational Medicine and Industrial Hygiene, National Taiwan University (NTU) and NTU Hospital, 1 Section 4, Roosevelt Rd, Da'an District, Taipei, Taiwan.
36
National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, National Health Research Institutes, 35 Keyan Road, 35053 Zhunan, Taiwan.
37
Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, 677 Huntington Ave, Boston, MA 02115, USA.
38
School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, 195 Prospect St, New Haven, CT 06511, USA.
39
Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Ho Chi Minh city, 217 Hồng Bàng, Phường 11, Quận 5, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
40
Institute of Research and Development, Duy Tan University, 254 Nguyễn Văn Linh, Thạc Gián, Q. Thanh Khê, Da Nang, Vietnam.
41
Chemical and Environmental Effects, Centre for Radiation, Chemical & Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Didcot Oxon, Chilton, London OX11 0RQ, UK.
42
Institute of Occupational Medicine, Research Avenue North, Riccarton, Edinburgh EH14 4AP, UK.
43
Center for Health and the Global Environment (CHanGE), University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USA.

Abstract

The Paris Agreement binds all nations to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change, with the commitment to Bhold warming well below 2 °C in global mean temperature (GMT), relative to pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C". The 1.5 °C limit constitutes an ambitious goal for which greater evidence on its benefits for health would help guide policy and potentially increase the motivation for action. Here we contribute to this gap with an assessment on the potential health benefits, in terms of reductions in temperature-related mortality, derived from the compliance to the agreed temperature targets, compared to more extreme warming scenarios. We performed a multi-region analysis in 451 locations in 23 countries with different climate zones, and evaluated changes in heat and cold-related mortality under scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement targets (1.5 and 2 °C) and more extreme GMT increases (3 and 4 °C), and under the assumption of no changes in demographic distribution and vulnerability. Our results suggest that limiting warming below 2 °C could prevent large increases in temperature-related mortality in most regions worldwide. The comparison between 1.5 and 2 °C is more complex and characterized by higher uncertainty, with geographical differences that indicate potential benefits limited to areas located in warmer climates, where direct climate change impacts will be more discernible.

KEYWORDS:

Climate change; Mortality; Projections; Temperature

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