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Bull Emerg Trauma. 2018 Oct;6(4):341-348. doi: 10.29252/beat-060412.

Analysis and Forecasting the Accident Mortality Trends in the Islamic Republic of Iran Applying Lee-Carter Model During the Years 2006 to 2035.

Author information

1
Deputy of Health, Ministry of Health and Medical Education, Tehran, Iran.
2
Department of Health in Disasters and Emergency, School of Health, Safety, Environment (HSE), Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
3
ACECR, Futures Studies Research Group of IHSS, Tehran, Iran.

Abstract

Objective:

To predict the accident mortality trend in next two decades in Iran.

Methods:

The study population comprised all deaths recorded in the system of registration and classification of causes of death of Ministry of Health and Medical Education of Iran during the years 2006 to 2015. The information was collected via death certificate, burial permit, and reporting forms. To forecast the trends of causes-of-death, Lee Carter model was employed in a demographic package 18.1 of R software version 3.3.1.

Results:

Based on the results, the highest percentage of all causes of death from accidents (in unintentional accidents) goes to transport accidents, and most top intentional accidents belonged to intentional self-harm. The trends of unintentional accidents in the whole population and both sexes have reduced from 2006 to 2035, such that the rate has reduced from 62.2 in 2006 to 12.1 per 100 thousand populations in 2035. It is anticipated that the causes of death due to intentional accidents with the rate of 8.86 in 2006, will be 1.89 (per 100,000 population) in the year 2035.

Conclusion:

Accident mortalities have a significant role in the deaths of Iranian population; therefore, to reduce the impact of accident mortality on society, a precise approach is needed to monitor the trends as well as preventing measures and increasing the safety standards.

KEYWORDS:

Accident; Causes of death; Iran; Lee Carter; Mortality forecast

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