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J Am Heart Assoc. 2018 Aug 21;7(16):e009217. doi: 10.1161/JAHA.118.009217.

Estimated Life Expectancy Without Recurrent Cardiovascular Events in Patients With Vascular Disease: The SMART-REACH Model.

Author information

1
1 Department of Vascular Medicine University Medical Centre Utrecht The Netherlands.
2
2 Brigham and Women's Hospital Heart & Vascular Center Harvard Medical School Boston MA.
3
3 Atlanta VAMC Epidemiology and Genomic Medicine and Emory Clinical Cardiovascular Research Institute Atlanta GA.
4
4 Department of Biostatistics Boston University School of Public Health Boston MA.
5
5 Julius Centre for Health Sciences and Primary Care University Medical Centre Utrecht The Netherlands.
6
6 Department of Cardiology University Medical Centre Utrecht The Netherlands.
7
7 Department of Neurology University Medical Centre Utrecht The Netherlands.
8
8 Department of Vascular Surgery University Medical Centre Utrecht The Netherlands.
9
9 FACT, DHU FIRE Hôpital Bichat AP-HP and INSERM U-1148 Université Paris-Diderot Paris France.
10
10 NHLI, ICMS Imperial College Royal Brompton Hospital London United Kingdom.

Abstract

Background In patients with vascular disease, risk models may support decision making on novel risk reducing interventions, such as proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 inhibitors or anti-inflammatory agents. We developed and validated an innovative model to estimate life expectancy without recurrent cardiovascular events for individuals with coronary, cerebrovascular, and/or peripheral artery disease that enables estimation of preventive treatment effect in lifetime gained. Methods and Results Study participants originated from prospective cohort studies: the SMART (Secondary Manifestations of Arterial Disease) cohort and REACH (Reduction of Atherothrombosis for Continued Health) cohorts of 14 259 ( REACH Western Europe), 19 170 ( REACH North America) and 6959 ( SMART , The Netherlands) patients with cardiovascular disease. The SMART-REACH model to estimate life expectancy without recurrent events was developed in REACH Western Europe as a Fine and Gray competing risk model incorporating cardiovascular risk factors. Validation was performed in REACH North America and SMART . Outcomes were (1) cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction, stroke, cardiovascular death) and (2) noncardiovascular death. Predictors were sex, smoking, diabetes mellitus, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, creatinine, number of cardiovascular disease locations, atrial fibrillation, and heart failure. Calibration plots showed high agreement between estimated and observed prognosis in SMART and REACH North America. C-statistics were 0.68 (95% confidence interval, 0.67-0.70) in SMART and 0.67 (95% confidence interval, 0.66-0.68) in REACH North America. Performance of the SMART-REACH model was better compared with existing risk scores and adds the possibility of estimating lifetime gained by novel therapies. Conclusions The externally validated SMART-REACH model could be used for estimation of anticipated improvements in life expectancy without recurrent cardiovascular events in individual patients with cardiovascular disease in Western Europe and North America.

KEYWORDS:

life expectancy; prognosis; risk stratification; secondary prevention; treatment effect

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