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BMC Infect Dis. 2018 Oct 11;18(1):511. doi: 10.1186/s12879-018-3388-y.

Mathematical modelling of vancomycin-resistant enterococci transmission during passive surveillance and active surveillance with contact isolation highlights the need to identify and address the source of acquisition.

Cheah ALY1,2, Cheng AC2,3,4, Spelman D2,5,6, Nation RL7, Kong DCM8,9,10, McBryde ES11,12.

Author information

1
Centre for Medicine Use and Safety, Monash University, Parkville, VIC, Australia.
2
Department of Infectious Diseases, Alfred Health, Prahran, VIC, Australia.
3
Infection Prevention and Healthcare Epidemiology Unit, Alfred Health, Prahran, VIC, Australia.
4
Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
5
Microbiology Unit, Alfred Health, Prahran, VIC, Australia.
6
Department of Infectious Diseases, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
7
Drug Delivery, Disposition and Dynamics, Monash Institute of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Monash University, Parkville, VIC, Australia.
8
Centre for Medicine Use and Safety, Monash University, Parkville, VIC, Australia. david.kong@monash.edu.
9
Pharmacy Department, Ballarat Health Services, Ballarat Central, VIC, Australia. david.kong@monash.edu.
10
Victorian Infectious Diseases Service, Royal Melbourne Hospital, Melbourne, VIC, Australia. david.kong@monash.edu.
11
Victorian Infectious Diseases Service, Royal Melbourne Hospital, Melbourne, VIC, Australia. emma.mcbryde@jcu.edu.au.
12
Department of Medicine, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia. emma.mcbryde@jcu.edu.au.

Abstract

BACKGROUND:

Clinical studies and mathematical simulation suggest that active surveillance with contact isolation is associated with reduced vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE) prevalence compared to passive surveillance. Models using pre- and post-intervention data that account for the imperfect observation and serial dependence of VRE transmission events can better estimate the effectiveness of active surveillance and subsequent contact isolation; however, such analyses have not been performed.

METHODS:

A mathematical model was fitted to surveillance data collected pre- and post-implementation of active surveillance with contact isolation in the haematology-oncology ward. We developed a Hidden Markov Model to describe undetected and observed VRE colonisation/infection status based on the detection activities in the ward. Bayesian inference was used to estimate transmission rates. The effectiveness of active surveillance was assumed to be via increased detection and subsequent contact isolation of VRE positive patients.

RESULTS:

We estimated that 31% (95% credible interval: 0.33-85%) of the VRE transmissions were due to cross-transmission between patients. The ratio of transmission rates from patients with contact isolation versus those without contact isolation was 0.33 (95% credible interval: 0.050-1.22).

CONCLUSIONS:

The majority of the VRE acquisitions in the haematology-oncology ward was estimated to be due to background rates of VRE, rather than within ward patient to patient acquisition. The credible interval for cross-transmission was wide which results in a large degree of uncertainty in the estimates. Factors that could account for background VRE acquisition include endogenous acquisition from antibiotic selection pressure and VRE in the environment. Contact isolation was not significantly associated with reduced VRE transmission in settings where the majority of VRE acquisition was due to background acquisition, emphasising the need to identify and address the source of acquisition. As the credible interval for the ratio of VRE transmission in contact isolated versus non-contact isolated patients crossed 1, there is a probability that the transmission rate in contact isolation was not lower. Our finding highlights the need to optimise infection control measures other than active surveillance for VRE and subsequent contact isolation to reduce VRE transmission. Such measures could include antimicrobial stewardship, environmental cleaning, and hand hygiene.

KEYWORDS:

Active surveillance; Mathematical modelling; Non-rinse chlorhexidine skin cleansing; Prevention; Vancomycin-resistant enterococci

PMID:
30309313
PMCID:
PMC6182842
DOI:
10.1186/s12879-018-3388-y
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article

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