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Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2018 Jul 26;15(8). pii: E1589. doi: 10.3390/ijerph15081589.

Estimation of Dietary Intake of Radionuclides and Effectiveness of Regulation after the Fukushima Accident and in Virtual Nuclear Power Plant Accident Scenarios.

Author information

1
Department of Health Risk Communication, Fukushima Medical University School of Medicine, 1 Hikarigaoka, Fukushima 960-1295, Japan. michio@fmu.ac.jp.
2
Department of Health Risk Communication, Fukushima Medical University School of Medicine, 1 Hikarigaoka, Fukushima 960-1295, Japan. takanira@fmu.ac.jp.
3
Institute of Industrial Science, University of Tokyo, 5-1-5 Kashiwanoha Kashiwa, Chiba 277-8574, Japan. takao-y@iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp.
4
Faculty of Pure and Applied Sciences, University of Tsukuba, 1-1-1 Tennodai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8577, Japan. ksueki@ied.tsukuba.ac.jp.
5
Faculty of Pure and Applied Sciences, University of Tsukuba, 1-1-1 Tennodai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8577, Japan. ksasa@tac.tsukuba.ac.jp.
6
Institute of Industrial Science, University of Tokyo, 5-1-5 Kashiwanoha Kashiwa, Chiba 277-8574, Japan. kei@iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp.

Abstract

Evaluation of radiation exposure from diet is necessary under the assumption of a virtual accident as a part of emergency preparedness. Here, we developed a model with complete consideration of the regional food trade using deposition data simulated by a transport model, and estimated the dietary intake of radionuclides and the effectiveness of regulation (e.g., restrictions on the distribution of foods) after the Fukushima accident and in virtual accident scenarios. We also evaluated the dilution factors (i.e., ratios of contaminated foods to consumed foods) and cost-effectiveness of regulation as basic information for setting regulatory values. The doses estimated under actual emission conditions were generally consistent with those observed in food-duplicate and market-basket surveys within a factor of three. Regulation of restricted food distribution resulted in reductions in the doses of 54⁻65% in the nearest large city to the nuclear power plant. The dilution factors under actual emission conditions were 4.4% for radioiodine and 2.7% for radiocesium, which are ~20 times lower than those used in the Japanese provisional regulation values after the Fukushima accident. Strict regulation worsened the cost-effectiveness for both radionuclides. This study highlights the significance and utility of the developed model for a risk analysis of emergency preparedness and regulation.

KEYWORDS:

Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident; cost-effectiveness analysis; food; internal dose; radiation risk assessment; regulation

PMID:
30050004
PMCID:
PMC6121232
DOI:
10.3390/ijerph15081589
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article

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