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Nature. 2018 Jun;558(7708):41-49. doi: 10.1038/s41586-018-0181-4. Epub 2018 Jun 6.

The many possible climates from the Paris Agreement's aim of 1.5 °C warming.

Author information

1
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland. sonia.seneviratne@ethz.ch.
2
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
3
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.
4
Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
5
Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, London, UK.
6
Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Météo-France/CNRS, Toulouse, France.
7
Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
8
School of Agriculture and Environment, University of Western Australia, Perth, Western Australia, Australia.
9
Global Change Institute, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
10
University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
11
Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany.
12
IRITHESys, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
13
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany.
14
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK.

Abstract

The United Nations' Paris Agreement includes the aim of pursuing efforts to limit global warming to only 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. However, it is not clear what the resulting climate would look like across the globe and over time. Here we show that trajectories towards a '1.5 °C warmer world' may result in vastly different outcomes at regional scales, owing to variations in the pace and location of climate change and their interactions with society's mitigation, adaptation and vulnerabilities to climate change. Pursuing policies that are considered to be consistent with the 1.5 °C aim will not completely remove the risk of global temperatures being much higher or of some regional extremes reaching dangerous levels for ecosystems and societies over the coming decades.

PMID:
29875489
DOI:
10.1038/s41586-018-0181-4
[Indexed for MEDLINE]

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