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Sci Adv. 2018 May 23;4(5):eaaq1012. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.aaq1012. eCollection 2018 May.

Carbon dioxide (CO2) levels this century will alter the protein, micronutrients, and vitamin content of rice grains with potential health consequences for the poorest rice-dependent countries.

Author information

1
State Key Laboratory of Soil and Sustainable Agriculture, Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, P. R. China.
2
University of Tokyo, 1-1-1 Yayoi, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8657, Japan.
3
Bryan College of Health Sciences, Bryan Medical Center, Lincoln, NE 68506, USA.
4
Centre for Crop Health, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Queensland 4350, Australia.
5
Center for Health and the Global Environment (CHanGE), University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98198, USA.
6
Center for Public Health Nutrition, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA.
7
U.S. Department of Agriculture-Agricultural Research Service (USDA-ARS), Beltsville Human Nutrition Center, Beltsville, MD 20705, USA.
8
USDA-ARS, Adaptive Cropping Systems Laboratory, Beltsville, MD 20705, USA.

Abstract

Declines of protein and minerals essential for humans, including iron and zinc, have been reported for crops in response to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, [CO2]. For the current century, estimates of the potential human health impact of these declines range from 138 million to 1.4 billion, depending on the nutrient. However, changes in plant-based vitamin content in response to [CO2] have not been elucidated. Inclusion of vitamin information would substantially improve estimates of health risks. Among crop species, rice is the primary food source for more than 2 billion people. We used multiyear, multilocation in situ FACE (free-air CO2 enrichment) experiments for 18 genetically diverse rice lines, including Japonica, Indica, and hybrids currently grown throughout Asia. We report for the first time the integrated nutritional impact of those changes (protein, micronutrients, and vitamins) for the 10 countries that consume the most rice as part of their daily caloric supply. Whereas our results confirm the declines in protein, iron, and zinc, we also find consistent declines in vitamins B1, B2, B5, and B9 and, conversely, an increase in vitamin E. A strong correlation between the impacts of elevated [CO2] on vitamin content based on the molecular fraction of nitrogen within the vitamin was observed. Finally, potential health risks associated with anticipated CO2-induced deficits of protein, minerals, and vitamins in rice were correlated to the lowest overall gross domestic product per capita for the highest rice-consuming countries, suggesting potential consequences for a global population of approximately 600 million.

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