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Alzheimers Dement. 2018 Aug;14(8):981-988. doi: 10.1016/j.jalz.2018.03.005. Epub 2018 May 22.

Estimation of lifetime risks of Alzheimer's disease dementia using biomarkers for preclinical disease.

Author information

1
Department of Biostatistics, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA. Electronic address: rbrookmeyer@ucla.edu.
2
Department of Biostatistics, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA.

Abstract

INTRODUCTION:

Lifetime risks are the probabilities of progressing to Alzheimer's disease (AD) dementia during one's lifespan. Here, we report the first estimates of the lifetime and ten-year risks of AD dementia based on age, gender, and biomarker tests for preclinical disease.

METHODS:

We used a multistate model for the disease process together with US death rates.

RESULTS:

Lifetime risks of AD dementia vary considerably by age, gender, and the preclinical or clinical disease state of the individual. For example, the lifetime risks for a female with only amyloidosis are 8.4% for a 90-year old and 29.3% for a 65-year old. Persons younger than 85 years with mild cognitive impairment, amyloidosis, and neurodegeneration have lifetime risks of AD dementia greater than 50%.

DISCUSSION:

Most persons with preclinical AD will not develop AD dementia during their lifetimes. Lifetime risks help interpret the clinical significance of biomarker screening tests for AD.

KEYWORDS:

Alzheimer's disease; Lifetime risks; Preclinical; Prediction

PMID:
29802030
PMCID:
PMC6097953
[Available on 2019-08-01]
DOI:
10.1016/j.jalz.2018.03.005

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