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Am J Epidemiol. 2018 Sep 1;187(9):1980-1989. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwy103.

Using Registry Data to Construct a Comparison Group for Programmatic Effectiveness Evaluation: The New York City HIV Care Coordination Program.

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Institute for Implementation Science in Population Health, Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, City University of New York, New York, New York.
Bureau of HIV/AIDS Prevention and Control, New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, New York, New York.
Department of Biostatistics, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York.


Many nonrandomized interventions rely upon a pre-post design to evaluate effectiveness. Such designs cannot account for events external to the intervention that may produce the outcome. We describe a method to construct a surveillance registry-based comparison group, which allows for estimating the effectiveness of the intervention while controlling for secular trends in the outcome of interest. Using data from the population-based, human immunodeficiency virus Surveillance Registry in New York City, we created a contemporaneous comparison group for persons enrolled in the New York City human immunodeficiency virus Care Coordination Program (CCP) from December 2009 to March 2013. Inclusion in the Registry-based (non-CCP) comparison group required meeting CCP eligibility criteria. To control for secular trends in the outcome, we randomly assigned persons in the non-CCP, Registry-based comparison group a pseudoenrollment date such that the distribution of pseudoenrollment dates matched the distribution of enrollment dates among CCP enrollees. We then matched CCP to non-CCP persons on propensity for enrollment in the CCP, enrollment dates, and baseline viral load. Registry-based comparison group estimates were attenuated relative to pre-post estimates of program effectiveness. These methods have broad applicability for observational intervention effectiveness studies and programmatic evaluations for conditions with surveillance registries.

[Available on 2019-09-01]

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