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Eur Heart J. 2018 Aug 1;39(29):2740-2745. doi: 10.1093/eurheartj/ehy233.

Adjustment of the GRACE score by 2-hour post-load glucose improves prediction of long-term major adverse cardiac events in acute coronary syndrome in patients without known diabetes.

Author information

Department of Cardiology, Milton Keynes University Hospital, Standing Way, Milton Keynes, UK.
Department of Cardiology, Scunthorpe General Hospital, Scunthorpe, UK.
Department of Cardiology, Castle Hill Hospital, Kingston upon Hull, UK.
Department of Academic Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism, Hull York Medical School, University of Hull, Kingston upon Hull, UK.



Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score (GRS), a powerful predictor of prognosis after acute coronary event (ACE), does not include a glucometabolic measure. We investigate whether 2 h post-load plasma glucose (2h-PG) could improve GRS based prognostic models in ACE patients without known diabetes mellitus (DM).

Methods and results:

A retrospective cohort study of 1056 ACE survivors without known DM who had fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and 2h-PG measured pre-discharge. Death and non-fatal myocardial infarction were recorded as major adverse cardiac events (MACE) during follow-up. GRS for discharge to 6 months was calculated. Cox proportional-hazards regression was used to identify predictors of event free survival. The predictive value of 2h-PG alone and combined with GRS was estimated using likelihood ratio test, Akaike's information criteria, continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI>0), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). During 40.8 months follow-up 235 MACEs (22.3%) occurred, more frequently in the upper 2h-PG quartiles. Two-hour PG, but not FPG, adjusted for GRS independently predicted MACE (hazard ratio 1.091, 95% confidence interval 1.043-1.142; P = 0.0002). likelihood ratio test showed that 2h-PG significantly improved the prognostic models including GRS (χ2 = 20.56, 1 df; P = 0.000). Models containing GRS and 2h-PG yielded lowest corrected Akaike's information criteria, compared to that with only GRS. 2h-PG, when added to GRS, improved net reclassification significantly (NRIe>0 6.4%, NRIne>0 24%, NRI>0 0.176; P = 0.017 at final follow-up). Two-hour PG, improved integrated discrimination of models containing GRS (IDI of 0.87%, P = 0.008 at final follow-up).


Two-hour PG, but not FPG, is an independent predictor of adverse outcome after ACE even after adjusting for the GRS. Two-hour PG, but not FPG, improves the predictability of prognostic models containing GRS.

[Indexed for MEDLINE]

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