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Am J Respir Crit Care Med. 2018 Oct 15;198(8):1033-1042. doi: 10.1164/rccm.201707-1405OC.

Longitudinal Modeling of Lung Function Trajectories in Smokers with and without Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.

Author information

1
1 Department of Radiology.
2
2 Channing Division of Network Medicine.
3
3 Divison of General Medicine, and.
4
4 Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston Massachusetts.
5
5 VA Normative Aging Study, Veterans Affairs Boston Healthcare System, Boston, Massachusetts.
6
6 Department of Medicine, Boston University School of Medicine, Boston, Massachusetts; and.
7
7 Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts.

Abstract

RATIONALE:

The relationship between longitudinal lung function trajectories, chest computed tomography (CT) imaging, and genetic predisposition to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has not been explored.

OBJECTIVES:

1) To model trajectories using a data-driven approach applied to longitudinal data spanning adulthood in the Normative Aging Study (NAS), and 2) to apply these models to demographically similar subjects in the COPDGene (Genetic Epidemiology of COPD) Study with detailed phenotypic characterization including chest CT.

METHODS:

We modeled lung function trajectories in 1,060 subjects in NAS with a median follow-up time of 29 years. We assigned 3,546 non-Hispanic white males in COPDGene to these trajectories for further analysis. We assessed phenotypic and genetic differences between trajectories and across age strata.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS:

We identified four trajectories in NAS with differing levels of maximum lung function and rate of decline. In COPDGene, 617 subjects (17%) were assigned to the lowest trajectory and had the greatest radiologic burden of disease (P < 0.01); 1,283 subjects (36%) were assigned to a low trajectory with evidence of airway disease preceding emphysema on CT; 1,411 subjects (40%) and 237 subjects (7%) were assigned to the remaining two trajectories and tended to have preserved lung function and negligible emphysema. The genetic contribution to these trajectories was as high as 83% (P = 0.02), and membership in lower lung function trajectories was associated with greater parental histories of COPD, decreased exercise capacity, greater dyspnea, and more frequent COPD exacerbations.

CONCLUSIONS:

Data-driven analysis identifies four lung function trajectories. Trajectory membership has a genetic basis and is associated with distinct lung structural abnormalities.

KEYWORDS:

chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; longitudinal analysis; lung function trajectories

PMID:
29671603
PMCID:
PMC6221566
[Available on 2019-10-15]
DOI:
10.1164/rccm.201707-1405OC

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