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Science. 2018 Mar 9;359(6380):1139-1143. doi: 10.1126/science.aao6379.

Sustained climate warming drives declining marine biological productivity.

Author information

1
Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA. jkmoore@uci.edu weiweif@uci.edu.
2
Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA.
3
Climate and Global Dynamics Division, Natural Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA.
4
Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
5
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA.
6
Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, TN, USA.

Abstract

Climate change projections to the year 2100 may miss physical-biogeochemical feedbacks that emerge later from the cumulative effects of climate warming. In a coupled climate simulation to the year 2300, the westerly winds strengthen and shift poleward, surface waters warm, and sea ice disappears, leading to intense nutrient trapping in the Southern Ocean. The trapping drives a global-scale nutrient redistribution, with net transfer to the deep ocean. Ensuing surface nutrient reductions north of 30°S drive steady declines in primary production and carbon export (decreases of 24 and 41%, respectively, by 2300). Potential fishery yields, constrained by lower-trophic-level productivity, decrease by more than 20% globally and by nearly 60% in the North Atlantic. Continued high levels of greenhouse gas emissions could suppress marine biological productivity for a millennium.

PMID:
29590043
DOI:
10.1126/science.aao6379
[Indexed for MEDLINE]

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