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Environ Int. 2018 Apr;113:10-19. doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2018.01.017. Epub 2018 Jan 28.

Local- and regional-scale air pollution modelling (PM10) and exposure assessment for pregnancy trimesters, infancy, and childhood to age 15 years: Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents And Children (ALSPAC).

Author information

1
MRC-PHE Centre for Environment and Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom. Electronic address: j.gulliver@imperial.ac.uk.
2
MRC-PHE Centre for Environment and Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom; UK Small Area Health Statistics Unit (SAHSU), Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
3
Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, Bristol, United Kingdom.
4
Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland.
5
MRC-PHE Centre for Environment and Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
6
UK Small Area Health Statistics Unit (SAHSU), Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
7
Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom.

Abstract

We established air pollution modelling to study particle (PM10) exposures during pregnancy and infancy (1990-1993) through childhood and adolescence up to age ~15 years (1991-2008) for the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents And Children (ALSPAC) birth cohort. For pregnancy trimesters and infancy (birth to 6 months; 7 to 12 months) we used local (ADMS-Urban) and regional/long-range (NAME-III) air pollution models, with a model constant for local, non-anthropogenic sources. For longer exposure periods (annually and the average of birth to age ~8 and to age ~15 years to coincide with relevant follow-up clinics) we assessed spatial contrasts in local sources of PM10 with a yearly-varying concentration for all background sources. We modelled PM10 (μg/m3) for 36,986 address locations over 19 years and then accounted for changes in address in calculating exposures for different periods: trimesters/infancy (n = 11,929); each year of life to age ~15 (n = 10,383). Intra-subject exposure contrasts were largest between pregnancy trimesters (5th to 95th centile: 24.4-37.3 μg/m3) and mostly related to temporal variability in regional/long-range PM10. PM10 exposures fell on average by 11.6 μg/m3 from first year of life (mean concentration = 31.2 μg/m3) to age ~15 (mean = 19.6 μg/m3), and 5.4 μg/m3 between follow-up clinics (age ~8 to age ~15). Spatial contrasts in 8-year average PM10 exposures (5th to 95th centile) were relatively low: 25.4-30.0 μg/m3 to age ~8 years and 20.7-23.9 μg/m3 from age ~8 to age ~15 years. The contribution of local sources to total PM10 was 18.5%-19.5% during pregnancy and infancy, and 14.4%-17.0% for periods leading up to follow-up clinics. Main roads within the study area contributed on average ~3.0% to total PM10 exposures in all periods; 9.5% of address locations were within 50 m of a main road. Exposure estimates will be used in a number of planned epidemiological studies.

KEYWORDS:

ALSPAC; Air pollution; Dispersion modelling; Exposure assessment; Mother-child; PM(10)

PMID:
29421397
PMCID:
PMC5907299
DOI:
10.1016/j.envint.2018.01.017
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article

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