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J Family Med Prim Care. 2017 Jul-Sep;6(3):513-516. doi: 10.4103/2249-4863.222043.

Female married illiteracy as the most important continual determinant of total fertility rate among districts of Empowered Action Group States of India: Evidence from Annual Health Survey 2011-12.

Author information

1
Development Support, Child Right and You, New Delhi, India.
2
Max Institute of Healthcare Management, Indian School of Business, Mohali, Punjab, India.
3
Women and Child Welfare Specialist, Delhi, India.
4
Department of Medical Records, Medical College, Raigarh, Chhattisgarh, India.

Abstract

Background:

District level determinants of total fertility rate in Empowered Action Group states of India can help in ongoing population stabilization programs in India.

Objective:

Present study intends to assess the role of district level determinants in predicting total fertility rate among districts of the Empowered Action Group states of India.

Material and Methods:

Data from Annual Health Survey (2011-12) was analysed using STATA and R software packages. Multiple linear regression models were built and evaluated using Akaike Information Criterion. For further understanding, recursive partitioning was used to prepare a regression tree.

Results:

Female married illiteracy positively associated with total fertility rate and explained more than half (53%) of variance. Under multiple linear regression model, married illiteracy, infant mortality rate, Ante natal care registration, household size, median age of live birth and sex ratio explained 70% of total variance in total fertility rate. In regression tree, female married illiteracy was the root node and splits at 42% determined TFR <= 2.7. The next left side branch was again married illiteracy with splits at 23% to determine TFR <= 2.1.

Conclusion:

We conclude that female married illiteracy is one of the most important determinants explaining total fertility rate among the districts of an Empowered Action Group states. Focus on female literacy is required to stabilize the population growth in long run.

KEYWORDS:

Married illiteracy; regression tree; total fertility rate

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