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J Infect. 2018 Mar;76(3):295-304. doi: 10.1016/j.jinf.2017.12.015. Epub 2018 Feb 2.

Contact reductions from live poultry market closures limit the epidemic of human infections with H7N9 influenza.

Author information

1
Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing 100071, China; State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing 100071, China. Electronic address: yueteng@sklpb.org.
2
Boston University, 888 Commonwealth Avenue, Boston, MA 02215, USA.
3
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA.
4
School of Chinese Materia Medica, Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Guangzhou 510006, China.
5
Institute of Hospital Management, Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing 100853, China.
6
Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing 100071, China; State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing 100071, China. Electronic address: tong.yigang@gmail.com.

Abstract

An early steep increase in the number of humans infected with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus was observed in China, raising great public concern domestically and internationally. Little is known about the dynamics of the transmission contacts between poultry and human populations, although such understanding is essential for developing effective strategies to control this zoonosis. In this study, we evaluated the effects of contact reductions from live poultry markets (LPMs) closures on the transmission of H7N9 virus during epidemics in Guangdong Province, China. A mathematical model of the poultry-to-person transmission dynamics of H7N9 virus was constructed. The parameters in the model were estimated from publicly available data on confirmed cases of human infection and information on LPMs closure during 2013-2017. By fitting the model, we measured the time-dependent contact quantity of the susceptible population to LPMs. The results showed that periodic intervention strategies can greatly reduce the magnitude of outbreaks, and the earlier interventions for policy are implemented, the smaller is the outbreak. The control efforts for LPMs to decrease the contact quantity are critical in preventing epidemics in the long term. This model should provide important insights for the development of a national intervention strategy for the long-term control of avian influenza virus epidemics.

KEYWORDS:

Contact quantity; H7N9 influenza; Live poultry markets; Mathematical model; Poultry-to-person transmission

PMID:
29406153
DOI:
10.1016/j.jinf.2017.12.015

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