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Surg Endosc. 2018 Jul;32(7):3149-3157. doi: 10.1007/s00464-018-6030-6. Epub 2018 Jan 16.

The development and validation of a scoring tool to predict the operative duration of elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy.

Collaborators (646)

Vohra RS, Kirkham AJ, Pasquali S, Marriott P, Johnstone M, Spreadborough P, Alderson D, Griffiths EA, Fenwick S, Elmasry M, Nunes QM, Kennedy D, Khan RB, Khan MAS, Magee CJ, Jones SM, Mason D, Parappally CP, Mathur P, Saunders M, Jamel S, Haque SU, Zafar S, Shiwani MH, Samuel N, Dar F, Jackson A, Lovett B, Dindyal S, Winter H, Fletcher T, Rahman S, Wheatley K, Nieto T, Ayaani S, Youssef H, Nijjar RS, Watkin H, Naumann D, Emesih S, Sarmah PB, Lee K, Joji N, Lambert J, Heath J, Teasdale RL, Weerasinghe C, Needham PJ, Welbourn H, Forster L, Finch D, Blazeby JM, Robb W, McNair AGK, Hrycaiczuk A, Charalabopoulos A, Kadirkamanathan S, Tang CB, Jayanthi NVG, Noor N, Dobbins B, Cockbain AJ, Nilsen-Nunn A, de Siqueira J, Pellen M, Cowley JB, Ho WM, Miu V, White TJ, Hodgkins KA, Kinghorn A, Tutton MG, Al-Abed YA, Menzies D, Ahmad A, Reed J, Khan S, Monk D, Vitone LJ, Murtaza G, Joel A, Brennan S, Shier D, Zhang C, Yoganathan T, Robinson SJ, McCallum IJD, Jones MJ, Elsayed M, Tuck L, Wayman J, Carney K, Aroori S, Hosie KB, Kimble A, Bunting DM, Hosie KB, Fawole AS, Basheer M, Dave RV, Sarveswaran J, Jones E, Kendal C, Tilston MP, Gough M, Wallace T, Singh S, Mockford JDKA, Issa E, Shah N, Chauhan N, Wilson TR, Forouzanfar A, Wild JRL, Nofal E, Bunnell C, Madbak K, Rao STV, Devoto L, Siddiqi N, Khawaja Z, Hewes JC, Gould L, Chambers A, Rodriguez DU, Sen G, Robinson S, Carney K, Bartlett F, Rae DM, Stevenson TEJ, Sarvananthan K, Dwerryhouse SJ, Higgs SM, Old OJ, Hardy TJ, Shah R, Hornby ST, Keogh K, Frank L, Al-Akash M, Upchurch EA, Frame RJ, Hughes M, Jelley C, Weaver S, Roy S, Sillo TO, Galanopoulos G, Cuming T, Cunha P, Tayeh S, Kaptanis S, Heshaishi M, Eisawi A, Abayomi M, Ngu WS, Fleming K, Bajwa DS, Chitre V, Aryal K, Ferris P, Silva M, Lammy S, Mohamed S, Khawaja A, Hussain A, Ghazanfar MA, Bellini MI, Ebdewi H, Elshaer M, Gravante G, Drake B, Ogedegbe A, Mukherjee D, Arhi C, Giwa L, Iqbal N, Watson NF, Aggarwal SK, Orchard P, Villatoro E, Willson PD, Mok KWJ, Woodman T, Deguara J, Garcea G, Babu BI, Dennison AR, Malde D, Lloyd D, Satheesan S, Al-Taan O, Boddy A, Slavin JP, Jones RP, Ballance L, Gerakopoulos S, Jambulingam P, Mansour S, Sakai N, Acharya V, Sadat MM, Karim L, Larkin D, Amin K, Khan A, Law J, Jamdar S, Smith SR, Sampat K, O'shea KM, Manu M, Asprou FM, Malik NS, Chang J, Johnstone M, Lewis M, Roberts GP, Karavadra B, Photi E, Hewes J, Gould L, Chambers A, Rodriguez D, O'Reilly DA, Rate AJ, Sekhar H, Henderson LT, Starmer BZ, Coe PO, Tolofari S, Barrie J, Bashir G, Sloane J, Madanipour S, Halkias C, Trevatt AEJ, Borowski DW, Hornsby J, Courtney MJ, Virupaksha S, Seymour K, Robinson S, Hawkins H, Bawa S, Gallagher PV, Reid A, Wood P, Finch JG, Guy Finch J, Parmar J, Stirland E, Gardner-Thorpe J, Al-Muhktar A, Peterson M, Majeed A, Bajwa FM, Martin J, Choy A, Tsang A, Pore N, Andrew DR, Al-Khyatt W, Taylor C, Bhandari S, Chambers A, Subramanium D, Toh SKC, Carter NC, Tate S, Pearce B, Wainwright D, Mercer SJ, Knight B, Vijay V, Alagaratnam S, Sinha S, Khan S, El-Hasani SS, Hussain AA, Bhattacharya V, Kansal N, Fasih T, Jackson C, Siddiqui MN, Chishti IA, Fordham IJ, Siddiqui Z, Bausbacher H, Geogloma I, Gurung K, Tsavellas G, Basynat P, Shrestha AK, Basu S, Chhabra A, Harilingam M, Rabie M, Akhtar M, Kumar P, Jafferbhoy SF, Hussain N, Raza S, Haque M, Alam I, Aseem R, Patel S, Asad M, Booth MI, Ball WR, Wood CPJ, Pinho-Gomes AC, Kausar A, Obeidallah MR, Varghase J, Lodhia J, Bradley D, Rengifo C, Lindsay D, Gopalswamy S, Finlay I, Wardle S, Bullen N, Iftikhar SY, Awan A, Ahmed J, Leeder P, Fusai G, Bond-Smith G, Psica A, Puri Y, Hou D, Noble F, Szentpali K, Broadhurst J, Date R, Hossack MR, Goh YL, Turner P, Shetty V, Riera M, Macano CAW, Sukha A, Preston SR, Hoban JR, Puntis DJ, Williams SV, Krysztopik R, Kynaston J, Batt J, Doe M, Goscimski A, Jones GH, Smith SR, Hall C, Carty N, Ahmed J, Panteleimonitis S, Gunasekera RT, Sheel ARG, Lennon H, Hindley C, Reddy M, Kenny R, Elkheir N, McGlone ER, Rajaganeshan R, Hancorn K, Hargreaves A, Prasad R, Longbotham DA, Vijayanand D, Wijetunga I, Ziprin P, Nicolay CR, Yeldham G, Read E, Gossage JA, Rolph RC, Ebied H, Phull M, Khan MA, Popplewell M, Kyriakidis D, Hussain A, Henley N, Packer JR, Derbyshire L, Porter J, Appleton S, Farouk M, Basra M, Jennings NA, Ali S, Kanakala V, Ali H, Lane R, Dickson-Lowe R, Zarsadias P, Mirza D, Puig S, Al Amari K, Vijayan D, Sutcliffe R, Marudanayagam R, Hamady Z, Prasad AR, Patel A, Durkin D, Kaur P, Bowen L, Byrne JP, Pearson KL, Delisle TG, Davies J, Tomlinson MA, Johnpulle MA, Slawinski C, Macdonald A, Nicholson J, Newton K, Mbuvi J, Farooq A, Mothe BS, Zafrani Z, Brett D, Francombe J, Spreadborough P, Barnes J, Cheung M, Al-Bahrani AZ, Preziosi G, Urbonas T, Alberts J, Mallik M, Patel K, Segaran A, Doulias T, Sufi PA, Yao C, Pollock S, Manzelli A, Wajed S, Kourkulos M, Pezzuto R, Wadley M, Hamilton E, Jaunoo S, Padwick R, Sayegh M, Newton RC, Hebbar M, Farag SF, Spearman J, Hamdan MF, D'Costa C, Blane C, Giles M, Peter MB, Hirst NA, Hossain T, Pannu A, El-Dhuwaib Y, Morrison TEM, Taylor GW, Thompson RLE, McCune K, Loughlin P, Lawther R, Byrnes CK, Simpson DJ, Mawhinney A, Warren C, McKay D, McIlmunn C, Martin S, MacArtney M, Diamond T, Davey P, Jones C, Clements JM, Digney R, Chan WM, McCain S, Gull S, Janeczko A, Dorrian E, Harris A, Dawson S, Johnston D, McAree B, Ghareeb E, Thomas G, Connelly M, McKenzie S, Cieplucha K, Spence G, Campbell W, Hooks G, Bradley N, Hill ADK, Cassidy JT, Boland M, Burke P, Nally DM, Hill ADK, Khogali E, Shabo W, Iskandar E, McEntee GP, O'Neill MA, Peirce C, Lyons EM, O'Sullivan AW, Thakkar R, Carroll P, Ivanovski I, Balfe P, Lee M, Winter DC, Kelly ME, Hoti E, Maguire D, Karunakaran P, Geoghegan JG, McDermott F, Martin ST, Cross KS, Cooke F, Zeeshan S, Murphy JO, Mealy K, Mohan HM, Nedujchelyn Y, Ullah MF, Ahmed I, Giovinazzo F, Milburn J, Prince S, Brooke E, Buchan J, Khalil AM, Vaughan EM, Ramage MI, Aldridge RC, Gibson S, Nicholson GA, Vass DG, Grant AJ, Holroyd DJ, Jones MA, Sutton CMLR, O'Dwyer P, Nilsson F, Weber B, Williamson TK, Lalla K, Bryant A, Carter CR, Forrest CR, Hunter DI, Nassar AH, Orizu MN, Knight K, Qandeel H, Suttie S, Belding R, McClarey A, Boyd AT, Guthrie GJK, Lim PJ, Luhmann A, Watson AJM, Richards CH, Nicol L, Madurska M, Harrison E, Boyce KM, Roebuck A, Ferguson G, Pati P, Wilson MSJ, Dalgaty F, Fothergill L, Driscoll PJ, Mozolowski KL, Banwell V, Bennett SP, Rogers PN, Skelly BL, Rutherford CL, Mirza AK, Lazim T, Lim HCC, Duke D, Ahmed T, Beasley WD, Wilkinson MD, Maharaj G, Malcolm C, Brown TH, Al-Sarireh B, Shingler GM, Mowbray N, Radwan R, Morcous P, Wood S, Kadhim A, Stewart DJ, Baker AL, Tanner N, Shenoy H, Hafiz S, De Marchi JA, Singh-Ranger D, Hisham E, Ainley P, O'Neill S, Terrace J, Napetti S, Hopwood B, Rhys T, Downing J, Kanavati O, Coats M, Aleksandrov D, Kallaway C, Yahya S, Weber B, Templeton A, Trotter M, Lo C, Dhillon A, Heywood N, Aawsaj Y, Hamdan A, Reece-Bolton O, McGuigan A, Shahin Y, Aymon, Luther AA, Nicholson JA, Rajendran I, Boal M, Ritchie J.

Abstract

BACKGROUND:

The ability to accurately predict operative duration has the potential to optimise theatre efficiency and utilisation, thus reducing costs and increasing staff and patient satisfaction. With laparoscopic cholecystectomy being one of the most commonly performed procedures worldwide, a tool to predict operative duration could be extremely beneficial to healthcare organisations.

METHODS:

Data collected from the CholeS study on patients undergoing cholecystectomy in UK and Irish hospitals between 04/2014 and 05/2014 were used to study operative duration. A multivariable binary logistic regression model was produced in order to identify significant independent predictors of long (> 90 min) operations. The resulting model was converted to a risk score, which was subsequently validated on second cohort of patients using ROC curves.

RESULTS:

After exclusions, data were available for 7227 patients in the derivation (CholeS) cohort. The median operative duration was 60 min (interquartile range 45-85), with 17.7% of operations lasting longer than 90 min. Ten factors were found to be significant independent predictors of operative durations > 90 min, including ASA, age, previous surgical admissions, BMI, gallbladder wall thickness and CBD diameter. A risk score was then produced from these factors, and applied to a cohort of 2405 patients from a tertiary centre for external validation. This returned an area under the ROC curve of 0.708 (SE = 0.013, p < 0.001), with the proportions of operations lasting > 90 min increasing more than eightfold from 5.1 to 41.8% in the extremes of the score.

CONCLUSION:

The scoring tool produced in this study was found to be significantly predictive of long operative durations on validation in an external cohort. As such, the tool may have the potential to enable organisations to better organise theatre lists and deliver greater efficiencies in care.

KEYWORDS:

Laparoscopic cholecystectomy; Operative duration; Patient factors; Prediction; Scoring tool; Theatre utilisation

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